THINK-TANK OFFENSIVE
James Morrison, [email protected]
Washington Times
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
DC
The crisis in the Republic of Georgia opened a new front in Washington,
where foreign-policy analysts rattled the Internet with e-mail
alerts on their solutions to stop Russian aggression against its
tiny neighbor.
>From the Atlantic Council to the Heritage Foundation, the think-tank
offensive roared into action after Georgia confronted pro-Russian
separatists in its breakaway region of South Ossetia last week,
prompting Moscow to invade Georgia.
Some analysts said Georgia gave Russia the excuse it was looking
for to crush Georgia’s pro-western government from seeking NATO
membership. Others suggested Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili
deliberately provoked Moscow to try to internationalize the dispute
and pressure the United States into a more forceful defense of its
strongest ally in the Caucasus region of Europe.
The Atlantic Council urged a four-pronged diplomatic assault against
Russia. It called for suspending Russia from the Group of Eight
industrialized nations, discontinuing partnership and cooperation
talks between Russia and the European Union and appealing to the
International Olympic Committee to review Russia’s qualifications to
host the 2014 Winter Games. The council also called on other nations
to reconsider participating in the Russian Olympics, which would be
held in Sochi, about 35 miles from the Georgian border.
Ariel Cohen, an analyst with the Heritage Foundation, said Russian
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is pursuing a policy of "regime change"
to remove Mr. Saakashvili and install a pro-Russian president in
Georgia.
"Russia is engaged in a classic combined arms operation," he said in
a e-mail memo Monday. "The [Russian] Black Sea Fleet is blockading
Georgia from the sea and likely preparing a landing, while Russian
ballistic missiles and its air force are attacking Georgian military
bases and cities."
Mr. Cohen argued that Russia "has long-prepared its aggression"
against Georgia’s pro-western government to undermine Mr. Saakashvili
and prevent Georgia from joining NATO.
"Aggression against Georgia also sends a strong signal to Ukraine
and Europe," he said. "Russia is playing a chess game of offense
and intimidation."
Brian Whitmore, in an analysis for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty,
suspected Mr. Saakashvili’s motives in attacking separatist forces
last week.
"The Georgian leader’s strategy is clear," he wrote on
"[Georgia’s] small army is no match for the Russian
military machine.
"Saakashvili’s only chance of success in his bid to regain control
of the Moscow-backed breakaway region of South Ossetia, therefore,
is to globalize the conflict and turn it into a central front of a
new struggle between Moscow and the West."
OUT OF GEORGIA
The U.S. Embassy in Georgia is evacuating Americans from the war zone
and warning those who chose to stay to keep their heads down.
The embassy Sunday organized a convoy from the Georgian capital,
Tbilisi, to the Armenian capital, Yerevan. Diplomats planned a second
convoy on Monday. The State Department on Saturday authorized the
departure of relatives of American diplomats.
"The [State] Department recommends that American citizens deter
non-essential travel to Georgia and that American citizens remaining
in Georgia review their security situation," the department said in
a warning posted on
It urged Americans who chose to remain in Georgia to monitor the
embassy’s Web site for further information.
Meanwhile in Washington, the phone line to the Georgian Embassy
transferred callers to a voice mailbox that was too full to take
additional messages.