ILGAR MAMEDOV: "BAKU’S SUPPORT TO TBILISI ACTIONS WAS LOWER THAN THE CURRENT LEVEL OF PARTNERSHIP AND INTERACTION BETWEEN GEORGIA AND AZERBAIJAN"

Today.Az
13 August 2008
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with famous political scientist Ilgar Mamedov.

– Does Azerbaijan occupy a right position in the situation around
conflict in South Ossetia?

– If we compare it with Armenia, which has not voiced a single word
during the growing tensions between Russia and Georgia, Azerbaijan was
closer to Georgia. We have supported Georgian leadership at least on
the level of the spokesman for the Foreign Ministry. But on the whole,
Baku’s support to Tbilisi’s actions was lower than the current level
of partnership and interaction between Georgia and Azerbaijan. Baku
should have supported its ally more strongly.

Both Azerbaijanis and Armenians on the public level projected the
new round of confrontation between Russia and Georgia on the Karabakh
problem and in the result almost all Azerbaijanis supported Georgia,
while most Armenians was searching for new chances for themselves in
Russia’s actions.

– Which lessons from the situation around the armed clash in Georgia,
can Azerbaijan draw?

– See how hard it was for Georgia to get US and Europe’s support,
despite the country was consistently western oriented and firm in
its adherence to democratic principles.

If Azerbaijan counts on the support of the west, it should attain
radical democratization of the political system. Evem the open western
oriented course is not enough to gain sympathies of the world society
for our interests in the similar Karabakh conflict with Armenia
and Russia.

As for the military lessons, you should better ask military
experts. Anyway, it is obvious that Russian troops got an advantage
only owing to separate factors, including aviation, a free passage
via the Rok tunnel, the quantitative advantage. It had extremely
great losses. This means that it is possible to fight Armenia and it
will be led by the same Russian troops in case the Karabakh conflict
is resumed.

– If Azerbaijan initiated the military actions for return of the
annexed lands immediately, will it be possible to state that Russia,
which is now closely watched by the world society, would not interfere
with this conflict in order not to worsen its position? Aren’t we
missing a chance in this issue?

– If our army is really on the level, declared by the government,
Azerbaijan could take an advantage of the moment, ensured by Georgia’s
decisive policy. But it did not happen. Though Azerbaijan will further
have favorable geopolitical conditions for attracting the factor of a
strong army to the efforts on restoration of its territorial integrity.

– How can Azerbaijan help Georgia as an ally and a GUAM member-state?

– At least, the level of public support could have been higher
than the press service of the Foreign Ministry. It could have been
possible to call on the Georgian Azerbaijanis for active assistance
of the government in resisting external aggression. It should be
noted that despite the absence of such signals from official Baku,
Azerbaijanis in Georgia have been active and most volunteered in the
time when mobilization was declared.

Moreover, efforts could have been taken for a more independent covering
of conflicts on our TV channels. Instead of all this, our police have
dispersed a small picket near the Russian embassy. Is it correct to
do so?

– Why did the events in South Ossetia start today? What did the
Georgian officials rely on? Georgian officials seemed to be aware
that Kremlin will not reject its "pie" in this clash. Why did the
Georgian powers deliberately risked the deterioration of the conflict?

– The current round of the conflict have been provoked by the
Kremlin. Within several hours Moscow sent several hundreds of military
facilities to Georgia, which is impossible without a long-lasting
planning. If you remember, Russia railway troops have restored a
railroad in Abkhazia allegedly for peaceful purposes. It is now
obvious that it was done for the accelerated transfer of military
technique. In other words, whatever Saakashvili did, the large scale
armed conflict was inevitable, which really occurred.

But Russia has lost. Today NATO countries do not doubt the expediency
of the soonest accession of Georgia and Ukraine to the alliance. After
it Russia have lesser chances to influence the region. It is possible
to say with confidence that Russia is losing the South Caucasus.