GEORGIA’S WITHDRAWAL WOULD SPELL NO TRAGEDY FOR CIS – FC MEMBERS

ITAR-TASS
13.08.2008, 06.18
Russia

MOSCOW, August 13 (Itar-Tass) — Georgia’s walkout of the Commonwealth
of Independent States, if it takes place after all, will be no
tragedy for the CIS, many members of the Federation Council (Russian
parliament’s upper house) have said.

"Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili stubbornly declares this
intention again and again. Last time he did so six months ago. But that
decision has not materialized to this day," the chairman of the CIS
Affairs Committee, Vadim Gustov, told Itar-Tass in an interview. He
does not rule out that this time the walkout may happen, but it will
certainly have no tragic consequences for the Commonwealth.

"For Georgia this will be very bad," Gustov said with certainty. He
recalled that within the framework of the CIS Georgia had signed a
number of agreements very important to it, in first place, trading,
economic and energy ones. Its walkout of the CIS would spell the
termination of those agreements.

Gustov agreed that Georgia was heavily funded by the United States,
but at the same time he doubted that "these injections will be able
to substitute for full-fledged economic development and cooperation
with near neighbors."

He also recalled that over 700,000 Georgian citizens arrived in Russia
lately in order to earn a living and were sending back home millions
of dollars in cash.

"The loss of this source of income will hit the Georgian population
really hard," the chairman of the CIS Affairs Committee warned.

As for Saakashvili’s call addressed to Ukraine and other CIS members
for leaving the CIS, too, Gustov believes it was very difficult to
judge at this point what their response might be.

For Ukraine, he said, this is a no easy question. On the one hand,
it is drifting westwards, but the European Union has told it that
no date for its admission could be set for now. On the other hand,
if it is to speed up economic development, Ukraine should increase
integration within the CIS, and the country’s leadership cannot but
be aware of this, Gustov said.

And the chairman of the Federation Council’s Defense and Security
Committee, Issa Kostoyev, described Saakashvili’s threat Georgia
would leave the CIS as a "blank shot."

The Georgian president, Kostoyev said, has been fanning tensions with
his statements, apparently waiting for approval and support from some
of his counterparts, but the chances this tactic of his may succeed
are not obvious at all.

True, some countries, including Ukraine, may try to capitalize on
this theme somehow, but their ultimate decision will depend on a
variety of foreign policy factors.

Kostoyev is certain that the Central Asian countries, Belarus, Armenia
and Azerbaijan (the latter is subject to the strongest pressures)
are unprepared to move in this direction.

Both FC members believe that the CIS should be more quick and active
in reforming itself. The stronger the CIS and the more effective its
operation, the fewer the doubts about its future and the weaker the
decision to leave it, the senior legislators said.