The National Citizens’ Initiative
75 Yerznkian Street
Yerevan 0033, Armenia
Tel.: (+374 – 10) 27.16.00, 27.00.03
Fax: (+374 – 10) 52.48.46
Email: [email protected]
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August 14, 2008
Escalation of the Politico-Military Tension in Georgia Could Result in
Unforeseeable Consequences for the Caucasus, and the Near and Middle East
Yerevan–Today, the National Citizens’ Initiative (NCI) convened a
roundtable devoted to the recent developments in Georgia. The meeting
brought together MPs, political scientists, human rights advocates, NGO
officials, and media representatives.
Welcoming the audience with opening remarks, NCI coordinator Hovsep
Khurshudian underscored that the Armenian body politic was extremely
concerned with respect to the recent events in Georgia and noted that these
developments had a direct impact on Armenian interests. "The military
operations already have resulted in the influx of thousands of refugees to
Armenia and in the disruption of the regular activity of transit and
transportation routes entering the country," he said. "What is more,
thousands of our compatriots who live in Georgia also have suffered by this
situation."
The day’s first speaker, chairman Stepan Grigorian of the "Globalization and
Regional Cooperation" NGO and political scientist, argued that the
marionette-like nature of the South Ossetian authorities was the real cause
behind the resurgence of the conflict. And this situation, according to the
speaker, allowed for the foreign powers–in this case, Russia–to pull
official Tskhinvali into perilous processes. In Grigorian’s view, by
deploying a large number of military units into Georgian territory Russia
violated all the commitments it had assumed as part of its peacekeeping
mandate and, consequently, it no longer can remain as a mediating side. "And
therefore the conflict transcended onto an all-encompassing phase, and, in
addition, Russia was prepared for an informational warfare in advance and
now it conducts that warfare most effectively," Grigorian maintained.
In his turn, political scientist and Heritage MP Stepan Safarian maintained
that the true reason behind the escalation of the tension was the Georgian
side’s operation toward "reestablishment of the constitutional order in
South Caucasus" and its inaccurate calculation. This calculation, according
to the speaker, was based on the hypothesis that the Russian side would
remain passive just like in 2004 when, in violation of the ceasefire, the
Georgian troops had entered the Kodori Gorge, which is a part of Abkhazia.
And on the other hand, according to Safarian, these developments will
accelerate Georgia’s accession into NATO. "Georgia made an attempt to make
the West, and specifically NATO-member countries, get involved in resolving
the matter of its territorial integrity. But in actual fact, Georgia will
have to enter NATO without Abkhazia and South Ossetia," Safarian concluded.
The remainder of the session was dedicated to an exchange of views and
recommendations among the public figures and policy specialists in
attendance. Noteworthy were interventions by Heritage MP Armen Martirosian;
coordinator Mane Hakobian of "The People are Masters of the Country" civic
union; chairwoman Karine Danielian of the "Sustainable Human Development"
NGO; and several others.
For further information, please call (37410) 27-16-00 or 27-00-03; fax
(37410) 52-48-46; email [email protected]; or visit