WPS Agency, Russia
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
August 15, 2008 Friday

FIGHTING ONE’S WAY OUT OF COMMONWEALTH
Foreign peacekeepers might appear in Georgian conflict areas

by Aleksei Malashenko

WHAT CONSEQUENCES FOR SELF-PROCLAIMED REPUBLICS MAY STEM FROM THE
EVENTS IN SOUTH OSSETIA?; The latest developments in South Ossetia
prove peacekeeping efforts fragile.

First, this is a precedent that allows for outright hostilities after
years of negotiations and peacekeeping efforts. What it means for
Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia, and even the Trans-Dniester region is
clear: war remains an acceptable (but not necessarily effective) means
of reintegration for the states split by separatist tendencies. The
South Ossetian precedent exposed fragile nature of the talks that
exist parallel to war preparations.

Second, this latest war on the post-Soviet territory spells an end of
the Commonwealth. Relations between Russia and Georgia bear an
increasingly stronger resemblance to the Azerbaijani-Armenian
relations. Yes, Russia will be feared. In the meantime, it is this (or
analogous) fear that compels former Soviet republics to keep their
distance from Russia and seek powerful allies in the international
community.

Third, the Georgian-Russian war became a strike at President Dmitry
Medvedev who had to go public with quite serious decisions in the
premier’s absence. Medvedev deserves credit for doing so without
unnecessary hysterics. It was clear that he was disturbed and upset
indeed.

The German foreign minister admitted insecurity in the matter of who
the guilty party was. Information from Tskhinvali makes it plain that
it was the Georgians who shed the first blood and that the Georgian
troops were not always an example of humanity. What happened in South
Ossetia is a humanitarian catastrophe.

The enemies will meet for negotiations again one day. Arranging the
talks will be a chore, but they are the only option.

And since they are patently unable to settle the conflict all by
themselves, the involved parties may even find it necessary to invite
some respected and independent intermediaries or even peacekeepers.

Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, August 12, 2008, p. 3