Hayots Ashkharh , Armenia
Aug 9 2008
The Georgian Blitzkrieg fails. This can become a lesson to Azerbaijan
as well
The Georgian army took control of two regions of South Ossetia and the
capital Tskhinvali in just a few hours as a result of a large-scale
attack initiated by Georgia on the night of 7-8 August.
The international community expressed an ambiguous approach to the
large-scale attack initiated by Georgia. Only a few standard
peace-loving statements were made. The debates at the UN General
Council, initiated at Russia’s demand, did not produce any
results. The Georgian authorities first announced to the whole world
that they were forced to take these actions – to put an end to
provocations in the conflict region.
Some time later such statements were replaced by explanations about
"restoring constitutional order" and "destroying the criminal
administration in Tskhinvali". Even Tbilisi’s intentions of providing
large financial aid to the South Ossetian population were announced.
But only in the first hours, in the afternoon of 8 August at about
1500-1600 [local time], sources in South Ossetia and Russia started to
report the retreat of the Georgian troops from the South Ossetian
capital Tskhinvali. The Georgian news agencies have not denied these
reports for the time being.
[Passage omitted: description of the Russian media behaviour while
covering the events]
Such a course of events shows that the Georgian Blitzkrieg, which was
initially quite successful, has already failed, and [Georgian
President Mikheil] Saakashvili’s administration is facing a difficult
dilemma. Georgia can still slow down the course of the hostilities by
announcing nationwide mobilization, but it is obvious that its
military defeat is predetermined.
Moreover, it is cannot be ruled out that units of South Ossetia and
the Russian volunteers who have joined them will occupy the Georgian
villages that are not controlled by Tskhinvali and even enter
Georgia’s territory. Besides, Abkhazia’s army has been mobilized and
has come closer to the border with Georgia. Its clash with the
Georgian troops is being prevented for the time by the peacekeepers
stationed in the area of the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict. Consequently,
only international intervention, first of all by the USA and the EU,
can get Georgia out of this situation with credit. However, to this
end the Georgian side should first of all halt the attack, withdraw
its detachments from South Ossetia, which is not the case for the time
being.
The hostilities, which started in South Ossetia, are of interest to
Armenia as this is the first serious attempt to settle a conflict in a
military way in the Caucasus. Azerbaijan also already masters the
political technologies and PR tools that were used in it.
The Azerbaijani government has repeatedly announced its intention to
settle the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict in a military way. Now that
Georgia initiated its first serious attempt to occupy South Ossetia on
the example of Serbian Krajina, the further behaviour of our neighbour
Azerbaijan will largely depend on its final results.
If South Ossetia, which is weaker than Nagornyy Karabakh, manages to
withstand this ordeal, the first attempt to turn the South Caucasus
into Balkans will fail, which cannot but serve as a lesson to
Azerbaijan as well.
Although the Armenian government is prudently maintaining its
neutrality in regard of the large-scale war started in South Ossetia,
it is clear that the issue of its outcome is of great importance to
Armenia. The military-political situation in the South Caucasus,
unlike that in the Balkans, shows that an attempt to exact revenge on
an opponent in a military way encounters counteraction from forces
interested in the region.
The hostilities that have started in South Ossetia are becoming a
peculiar "political text" in the issue of selecting peaceful or
military ways of settling conflicts in the South Caucasus. We hope
that the expected failure of Georgia’s attempt to solve the conflict
in a military way will become a lesson to Azerbaijan and will prevent
senseless attempts to solve political issues in a military way.
[translated from Armenian]