WPS Agency, Russia
What the Papers Say (Russia)
August 13, 2008 Wednesday
THE FIRST CASUALTY OF THE C.I.S.
by Svetlana Gamova, Anatoly Gordiyenko
Georgia withdraws from the CIS and calls on other countries to follow;
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has announced that Georgia is
withdrawing from the CIS. He called on Ukraine and other former Soviet
republics to follow this example. Most CIS countries have been slow to
comment on the South Ossetia conflict.
The end of the war in South Ossetia, announced yesterday by Russian
President Dmitri Medvedev, has coincided with another ending – in the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Georgian President Mikheil
Saakashvili told his fellow citizens that Georgia is withdrawing from
the CIS. He called on Ukraine and other former Soviet republics to
follow this example. But the governments of other CIS countries are in
no hurry to submit those resignations. Neither are they rushing to
express opinions about the recent events in Georgia’s conflict
zones. Most of Russia’s CIS partners – including its closest friends
and allies, Belarus and Kazakhstan – did not express support for the
peacekeeping operation aimed at compelling Georgia to make peace. But
neither did they express support for Tbilisi. Clear statements
regarding Moscow were issued by Ukraine and Azerbaijan: they expressed
support for Georgia’s territorial integrity. The other CIS countries
still remain silent.
Speaking at a rally in Tbilisi on August 12, Saakashvili announced
that the Georgian government decided on August 11 to withdraw from the
CIS. The 100,000 people at the rally responded to this news with
applause. Saakashvili said that in making this decision, Georgia is
bidding its final farewell to the Soviet Union. He called on Ukraine
and other former Soviet republics to join Georgia in withdrawing from
the CIS, which is run by Russia. Moreover, Saakashvili announced that
the Georgian government has made the decision to revoke all previous
decisions regarding Russia’s peacekeeping mission. Saakashvili said:
"As of today, we regard the Russian troops in Abkhazia and South
Ossetia as occupation forces and regard these regions as occupied
territories. And we won’t stop fighting until the last occupying
soldier has left our land."
No other CIS countries have responded to Georgia’s move as yet, but
Ukraine may follow its example. Meanwhile, however, friendly capitals
remain silent – delaying any evaluations of recent events in South
Ossetia. Kazakhstan attempted to make a statement yesterday, but it
wasn’t very convincing.
Kazakh Foreign Ministry spokesman Erzhan Ashikbayev said at a briefing
on August 12: "The Ministry has no statements to make at this time,
although this doesn’t mean that Kazakhstan has no stance on the issue
in question." Ashikbayev said: "We support political regulation of the
conflict." He also noted that Kazakhstan is "closely following
developments in the conflict zone, and will continue to monitor the
situation," and "will certainly participate in any CIS consultations
about resolving the situation in Georgia, if the country holding the
CIS chair initiates such consultations."
Kyrgyzstan is currently chairing the CIS – but it hasn’t called any
meetings so far. Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev said: "The
situation in South Ossetia should be resolved by political methods."
He instructed the Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry to hold consultations with
the foreign affairs ministries of other CIS countries. Then Bakiyev
left for his summer vacation. His press service told us that he is in
Issyk-Kula and will be taking a break there until the end of next
week. Thus, we shouldn’t expect any urgent CIS meetings, not even at
the level of foreign affairs ministers – let alone a heads of state
summit.
There is also silence from the government of Uzbekistan – Russia’s
strategic and military partner. Another friend of Moscow, Tajikistan,
hasn’t given an evaluation of events in South Ossetia
either. Turkmenistan remains neutral, as usual. But most surprising of
all is the silence from Minsk. Only a year ago, Belarusian President
Alexander Lukashenko showed support for Moscow on all its foreign
policy issues; but now he hasn’t said a word about what happened in
Tskhinvali.
The only unequivocal statements have come from members of the GUAM
alliance. Ukraine not only announced that it is siding with Georgia,
but told Russia that it is treating a neighbor-state inappropriately,
and even threatened to prevent Russian warships from returning to
their Sevastopol base. Khazar Ibragim, spokesman for the Foreign
Ministry of Azerbaijan, upheld the territorial integrity of Georgia
and expressed support for Tbilisi’s actions. He also emphasized
Nagorno-Karabakh: "If it becomes necessary, Azerbaijan will act in
accordance with international law to re-establish its territorial
integrity." However, in contrast to Ukraine, Azerbaijan has not
condemned Russia’s actions.
Moldova confined itself to an expression of support for the European
Union’s stance: calling for a cease-fire from both sides. Armenia did
the same. President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan met with Prime
Minister Vladimir Putin in Beijing; he said that the peacekeeping
mandate for South Ossetia was issued by the CIS heads of state, and
only they could withdraw it – but this statement hasn’t been followed
up. In contrast to the UN Security Council, which has met five times
to discuss this problem, the CIS hasn’t organized any summits in
relation to the war. This fact tells us a great deal about the
effectiveness of the CIS in general, as well as indicating serious
problems with bilateral relations between Russia and its former
allies.
These countries have taken a waiting stance because they don’t wish to
quarrel with either Moscow or Washington. Everyone understands that
the voting rights in the South Ossetia conflict are held by Russia and
the USA, not Russia and Georgia. Central Asian states aren’t the only
ones to be cooperating actively with the USA and other Western
countries. Even Lukashenko has hired a Western image-maker; thus, he
is trying to save face in this complicated situation. Moreover,
experts say that a number of CIS countries are looking at the South
Ossetia situation and applying it to their own cases.
A number of political analysts in Kyrgyzstan maintain that the next
round of the "game" should be expected to focus on the Manas airbase:
controlled by the Coalition Forces in Afghanistan de jure, and by the
USA de facto. Analyst Mars Sariyev says: "There is an American
military base in Kyrgyzstan – as well as a Russian airbase. Therefore,
we will be forced to decide between them. The Communist Party of
Kyrgyzstan has already called for the Manas airbase to be removed from
Bishkek. We are in a difficult situation. Both Russia and the USA will
be putting pressure on us." Another analyst, Askarbek Mambetaliyev,
says: "If South Ossetia is successfully separated from Georgia, this
would set a precedent for the Russian president to ‘defend the lives
and honor of Russian citizens wherever they may be’ by using such
methods."
Similar apprehensions are being expressed in Ukraine – but in that
country, they are coming from the Foreign Ministry. Azerbaijan,
Armenia, and Moldova all have unresolved territorial problems; they
are watching events and awaiting the conclusion of the story that
started with Georgia fighting South Ossetia, then changed to Russia
fighting Georgia. These countries are looking to either copy Georgia’s
experience or refrain from doing so. They are also trying to figure
out whom to blame and what to blame them for – if any such situation
should arise.
Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, No. 169, August 13, 2008, pp. 1-2
Translated by InterContact