RUSSIA LOSES "STRATEGIC WAR" AGAINST GEORGIA

Yeni Musavat
Aug 17 2008
Azerbaijan

The West, especially the USA, is gradually boosting political and
moral support for Georgia. We especially stressed one moment when
the known tragic events first started in the neighbouring county that
although the democratic world’s mechanism of patronage of Georgia is
put into operation late, it will be comprehensive and permanent. The
process has started and it is gaining momentum. It is covering not
only the humanitarian field, but also political and diplomatic,
and military fields.

It is noteworthy that the democratic world showed a unanimous position
which is rarely the case. This has reasons. Observations show that the
latest developments have caused serious disappointment and concern in
the West and at the same time made a fairly sobering impact on it. The
point is not only about Russia’s deeds which do not meet international
norms. The point is also about threats created by political regimes
imitating democracy in the region (or not doing it at all), the
fact that they distanced themselves from the current force majeure
situations and the fact that they actually left Georgia alone. This
was clearly seen in the person of the Azerbaijani authorities. Imagine
that almost 10 days have passed since Russian aggression, but the
Baku government has not even paid tribute to the Georgian people,
whereas Moscow’s satellite Armenia did so.

Thus, "gaps" and "disorders" of democracy showed themselves vividly
in the region. Those in the capital of democracy have understood
that expectations regarding Russia’s civil image have been extremely
exaggerated and the policy of tender "critical dialogue" should be
consigned into the dustbin of history. That is, the levers matching
the Kremlin’s behaviour should be put into operation and it should
be talked to in its own language if need be. It seems this is the case.

Let’s start from the fact that Russia has already begun to reap
"bitter fruits" of its military aggression against the neighbouring
country in the geopolitical and diplomatic fields. Although Moscow
seems unperturbed and does not hurry to pull out its troops from
Georgia, the reality shows that our northern neighbour has lost the
strategic war against Georgia.

As far as the "fruits" are concerned, let’s note that the latest
developments will absolutely accelerate Ukraine’s and Georgia’s NATO
membership. The West is openly declaring this. At a news conference
after her meeting with Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev on 16 August,
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, standing just next to him,
that the two countries would soon become the alliance’s members. The
capitals of democracies have so far shown a cautious position in
order not to irritate the Kremlin.

No trace of that caution has already remained. On the contrary, the
leading Western states seem to regret about the delay [in the two
countries’ membership issue]. Georgia’s and Ukraine’s NATO membership
means that Russia will have to deal not with Georgia, but directly
with NATO in the South Caucasus. Although, Moscow behaves in the
neighbouring country as a winner and does not hurry to pull out its
unbridled troops from there, it is clear that this is its "Pyrrhic
victory". Because time does not work for the Kremlin. Russia cannot
stand against NATO. The US military budget is 10 times larger than
Russia’s overall budget. We do not even speak about the alliance’s
modern army building.

Another bitter "fruit" for Moscow is that the GUAM [Georgia, Ukraine,
Moldova and Azerbaijan] countries have started leaving the CIS. It
is known that Tbilisi has made its own decision. Ukraine will most
probably take the same step. Ukraine is not an ordinary country, but
an influential state. After that no democratic state will remain in
the CIS. The Azerbaijani leadership, which claims that it has taken a
pro-Western line, will have to think about this. Otherwise, it will
follow Russia’s policy and this will cause the West’s appropriate
reaction.

The third "fruit" is that the West will never recognize the
independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in any case. This is stated
unequivocally. The reason for this is presumably the fact that the
separatist bodies have become puppets (more precisely, into hostages)
in Russia’s hands and discredited themselves.

The fourth bitter "fruit" for Russia is the acceleration of talks on
the missile defence shields in Poland and the Czech Republic.