BLOODY LAUNCH OF THE TURKISH SECTOR OF THE KARS-AKHALKALAKI RAILWAY

Hayots Ashkharh
July 26 2008
Armenia

The dramatic events recorded in [Georgian province of
Samtskhe-]Javakheti on the eve of the official launch of the
Turkish section of the Kars-Akhalkalaki-[Tbilisi-Baku] railway
[connecting Turkey and Azerbaijan via Georgia] show that even peaceful
Turkish-Azerbaijani initiatives have a bloody conclusion for us,
Armenians.

It is more than obvious that before the launch of the construction of
the Kars-Akhalkalaki railway, the clashes that started in Akhalkalaki
on 17 July were the result of simple provocation by the Georgian
special services. These were aimed at demonstrating the resoluteness of
the Georgian government to carry out the construction of the railway
via Georgia’s territory without a hitch.

So, notwithstanding how much the methods of struggle chosen by
the United Javakhk organization correspond to the new realities in
the region, the activists of the latter have received the role of
"scapegoats" in this show.

This testifies to the fact that the launch of the construction of the
Turkish section of the Kars-Akhalkalaki railway may be tantamount
to adding new explosive elements to the already tense situation in
the region.

Georgia is under serious political pressure from Russia, which
will reach its peak in December 2008, when the Georgian government
expects to receive full rights to join NATO. It is not incidental that
large-scale military manoeuvres were taking place in the countries
neighbouring Georgia in the north and south while the Georgian,
Azerbaijani and Turkish presidents laid the rails of, as they put it,
"a new silk road" in Kars on 24 July.

The existing situation makes the Armenian government
avoid the temptation to give hasty assessment of the recent
developments. However, one should not forget that the Kars-Akhalkalaki
railway project was not feasible either economically or technically
both in the past and nowadays. It is a lever of political pressure upon
Armenia. The loud words that the Georgian, Turkish and Azerbaijani
leaders said in Kars on 24 July are, in reality, a smokescreen for
the whole civilized world.

To add to it [the smokescreen], the Turkish president said in Kars that
this project was open to any country in the South Caucasus. Concurrent
with his comment, apparently meant for Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan
recalled in disguised ways the well-known preconditions set before
our country.

What kind of "open project" are the Turks and Azerbaijanis speaking
about, if Armenia is offered to forget its historical past and
political achievements in order to participate in it? It is clear that
this PR show has been initiated to "save face" in the atmosphere of
the lately activated non-official Armenian-Turkish contacts.

So, until 2011, when the Kars-Akhalkalaki railway is to be launched,
Javakheti’s territory can be used to put pressure upon Armenia and
to organize political provocations. The Azerbaijani contractor which
is to carry out the construction in Javakheti will not stay away from
these provocations as they can spoil Armenian-Georgian relations.

The Turkish special services will also become active in Javakheti,
which will also try to drive a wedge between Armenians and Georgians
and also speed up the return of Meskhetian Turks. Georgia, in turn,
will find itself in an ambiguous situation, as having provided
its own territory for a geo-economic experiment, which has apparent
elements of bluff, it will have to face its negative results sooner or
later. Moreover, no matter how much the countries, which are starting
the construction of the Kars Akhalkalaki railway, try to advertise the
economic "advantages" of their project, it becomes even more obvious
with the lapse of time that they will be in growing need of funding
to complete it on time. It is clear at present that the project will
cost not 400m dollars, but 600m-700m dollars, but this will not be
the final cost.

New elements of tension are being brought in the South Caucasus region
with the construction of the Kars-Akhalkalaki railway under the guise
of a large-scale economic project. Who benefits from this? Armenia and
Armenian diplomats should do their best in the near future so that the
start of the construction of the Kars-Akhalkalaki railway does not
become an opportunity for new clashes and arrests in Javakheti. It
is necessary to win time at least until the end of this year, when
there will be some clarity in Russian-American relations and Georgia’s
participation in NATO programmes. It cannot be ruled out that these
clarifications will be accompanied by a new "round" of tension in
[Georgian breakaway regions of] Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Given the current unfavourable geopolitical shifts, it is very
important that we do not become "a party" to rivalry among superpowers
that have interests in the region, while at the same time gaining
their favour in the issue of overcoming Armenia’s blockade. At some
point then the role and significance of the Armenian factor will be
valued that will stop Turkey’s plans to invade the South Caucasus.

We believe that in the beginning of 2009, Armenia and Armenian
diplomats will be given an opportunity to take more proactive steps
in order to break the circle of blockade and provocations, which
is being created around it as a result of the construction of the
Kars-Akhalkalaki railway.