DEBACLE IN GEORGIA
The Washington Times
August 18, 2008 Monday
Russia’s invasion of Georgia is a damaging blow to the prestige and
reputation of the U.S.-led NATO alliance – a major cornerstone of
U.S. military security strategy in Europe since the end of World War
II. The decision by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and the government
he dominates to attack Georgia serves a number of critical Russian
strategic goals.
First, it is a warning to other nations in Europe and the Caucasus that
they put themselves in mortal danger if they seek to join NATO and
align themselves with United States. Target number one is Ukrainian
President Viktor Yushchenko – who like Georgian President Enhanced
Coverage LinkingGeorgian President -Search using: Biographies Plus
News News, Most Recent 60 Days Mikheil Saakashvili Enhanced Coverage
LinkingMikheil Saakashvili -Search using: Biographies Plus News
News, Most Recent 60 Days is the democratically elected leader of a
formerly Soviet-occupied nation and has applied to join NATO. Second,
it is a step toward seizing monopoly control of major energy pipelines
supplying the West which run through Georgia: The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
(BTC) oil pipeline, opened two years ago, which transports oil from
Baku, Azerbaijan, through Georgia to Ceyhan, Turkey, and the South
Caucasus gas pipeline, which runs parallel to the BTC pipeline. Third,
it is part of a longer-range effort to create a sphere of influence
in the former Soviet Union and beyond. Fourth, it is part of a policy
that emboldens Iran by intimidating neighboring states away from
military cooperation with Washington.
Over the past 15 years, Washington has provided close to $2 billion in
military assistance to Georgia, and Tbilisi has sent troops to fight in
Iraq and Afghanistan alongside U.S. forces. Just last month, U.S. and
Georgian military forces conducted two weeks of training in Georgian
territory, while the Russian military conducted exercises of its own
to the north – which virtually mirrored the operation Russia launched
against Georgia in recent days. Yet the U.S. intelligence community was
apparently caught by surprise when Russia launched its blitzkrieg –
an invasion that has gone well beyond the stated aim of protecting
residents of South Ossetia from the Georgian government. Russian
troops have driven to within 20 miles of Tbilisi and have bombed the
BTC pipeline – located more than 50 miles from South Ossetia.
In April, Washington, joined by Eastern European countries, pushed
to invite Georgia and Ukraine into joining NATO. But thanks largely
to opposition from France and Germany, the effort failed, and it is
unclear whether things will be any different in the near future. In
recent days, there has been an undertone of complaints from European
officials suggesting that "rash" behavior from Georgia provoked Russia
– thereby vindicating French and German opposition to admitting Georgia
and Ukraine into the alliance. It would be difficult to imagine a more
intellectually dishonest reading of the situation. While Georgia’s
recent behavior in South Ossetia has been far from perfect, Heritage
Foundation scholar Ariel Cohen notes that Moscow has been planning a
land invasion of Georgia for at least two-and-a-half years. Its goal
has been to topple Mr. Saakashvili – or better yet, to create so much
hardship for the Georgian people that they oust Mr. Saakashvili in
favor of someone who would do Russia’s bidding.
One of the most disturbing aspects of Russia’s attack is the threat
it poses to the flow of energy to American allies in Western Europe
and Israel. The BTC pipeline was advocated by President Clinton and
the current President Bush as a way to make the Caucasus states of
Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia less dependent on Russia and Iran
by linking them economically with the West. As The Washington Times
reported last week, at least three other major energy pipelines now
under consideration in the region face greater difficulties in the
wake of the Russian invasion, which could well scare off oil companies
and investors. "If what is happening now had happened in 1996, the
BTC pipeline would not have been built," Mr. Cohen told The Times.
Russia’s invasion of Georgia serves yet another purpose: protecting its
ally Iran. Moscow has long sought to deny the United States airfields,
bases and other forms of cooperation from Georgia and Azerbaijan which
could be used in a military operation against Iran. At the same time,
Moscow is expected to deploy S-300 long-range anti-aircraft missiles
in Iran next year – greatly complicating any military strike against
Iranian nuclear-weapons facilities.
One bit of good news is the fact that, following Russia’s move
into Georgia, Poland moved to defy Russia by signing a missile
defense agreement with the United States. That is a step in the
right direction. But NATO will not remain a viable alliance if small
democracies like Georgia are left twisting in the wind while France
and Germany are congratulating themselves for their cravenness. For
starters, Georgia and Ukraine should be admitted to NATO sooner rather
than later.