THE LESSONS OF GEORGIAN – OSSIAN "FOUR-DAYS" WAR
Lilit Poghosyan

Hayots Ashkharh Daily
19 Aug 2008
Armenia

Chairman of NKR Foreign Affairs Committee Vahram Atanesyan introduces
his viewpoints regarding the consequences of Georgian-Ossian
military clash, and the unprecedented tension in Russian-Georgian
and Russian-Ossian relations.

"How do you estimate Russian-Ossian developments in terms of the
change in the regional situation, the ratio of the powers in the
region and the settlement of Karabkh conflict?"

"Of course Georgian adventurousness completely changed the situation
in the region. Moreover because the country didn’t stand out with
its stability in South Caucasus and today the situation is much worse
than it used to be, the risk of inflicting frozen conflicts is growing.

If we try to judge from the point of view of Azerbaijani counteraction,
than we must underscore that official Baku was anticipating Georgian
"success", most probably in that case not excluding the possibility
of military attack from their side. In my view had Azerbaijan not
been at the stage of presidential elections they would have started
the same in Nagorno Karabakh in parallel with Georgian developments.

On the other hand judging from the discussions in Moscow and the
West, especially with the French Chairman in the European Union,
regarding the ways of the settlement of South-Ossian and Abkhasian
conflict, an atmosphere seems to have been created, when they are
based not on the affectations of the internationally recognized
countries but other realities. Which means military-political, and
psychological realities turn into a certain factor for the settlement
of conflicts. Particularly those three statements that the President
of the Russian Federation addressed to the international community
completely match with the realities existing in Armenian – Azerbaijani
conflicting zone.

A question arises here – what would have been the reaction of the
international community had Georgia been a success in displacing
South-Ossian citizens from their dwelling places. Or, if the citizens
of South-Ossia don’t want to make up part of Georgia, can anyone
impose this upon them.

We can also address the same statements to the international community,
from the political point of view. What would have been the reaction
of the international community had Nagorno Karabakh not averted
Azerbaijani aggression in 1991-1994? Would they put up with the idea
of 150 000 people having been displaced from their dwelling places.

If today Azerbaijan can’t put up with the idea that Nagorno Karabakh
has the right to be the master of its own destiny, then does the
international community have the competence to make Nagorno Karabakh
be reintegrated with the united state of Azerbaijan?

These statements somehow change=2 0the general picture of the
negotiation process and in some sense it can be considered a positive
signal for the settlement of Armenian – Azerbaijani conflict. But of
course nothing is identical in this world. The attitude of the same
Russia and the European Union towards South Ossia can differ from
their attitude towards Karabakh. And I don’t expect that the same
things that have been said in terms of South Ossia or Abkhazia will
be said in case of Karabakh."

"Do you think Azerbaijan will learn a lesson from the consequences
of the "blitz-war" in Georgian-Ossian conflict zone or they will be
tempted by the Georgian scenario?"

"I don’t think what happened will unequivocally be a lesson
for Azerbaijan, because the latter do understands that in case
of a military instigation from their side the counteraction of
the international community won’t be that operative, because of
geopolitical and other reasons.

Meanwhile Azerbaijan is well aware that Georgia decided to give
military solution to the issue, in case when South Ossia, in fact,
didn’t have any self-defense system and forces. But the situation is
quite different in Karabakh’s case. In my view Azerbaijanis take this
into account and if we judge from the commentaries of the recent days
it is evident that the enthusiasm of August 8 and 9 gradually reduced."

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress