WILL THE GEORGIA CONFLICT SET AN EXAMPLE?

AzerNews Weekly
Aug 20 2008
Azerbaijan

The outcome of the Russia-Georgia military stand-off is crucial for
talks on settling the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Upper (Nagorno)
Garabagh, an influential international expert says.

The developments in Georgia make the issue of Azerbaijan’s territorial
integrity extremely relevant, said Zeyno Baran, director of the
Washington-based Center for Eurasian Policy at the Hudson Institute.

"Even if Russia does recognize Georgia’s territorial integrity, by
taking the latest actions it infringed upon all existing international
norms. The outcome of Russia’s actions against Georgia will set a very
important example for those who will decide on actions regarding the
Garabagh problem," she said.

Baran said the war with Georgia is "a bad start" for the newly-elected
Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev.

The crisis was sparked when pro-Western Georgia launched a military
offensive to retake the pro-Russian region of South Ossetia, which
broke away from Georgian rule in the early 1990s. Moscow retaliated
on August 8 by sending troops to the region which struck, with
overwhelming force, at Georgian positions. In addition to ground
troops, Russia used its air force to strike strategic facilities in
Georgia. Russian President Medvedev, on August 12, ordered an end
to Russia’s military actions in Georgia, claiming Moscow said it was
seeking "to encourage peace."

Isa Gambar, leader of the Azerbaijani political party Musavat, said
developments in the neighboring South Caucasus republic are affecting
not only the Garabagh conflict, but also the situation throughout
the entire region.

"It is too early to say whether this impact will be positive or
negative, as the ongoing process, itself, has yet to reach its final
stage. But overall, I believe that what is happening in Georgia will
have a positive impact on [the resolution of] the Garabagh conflict."

Gambar said Russian authorities had "completely revealed their essence"
by their military actions.

"Moscow once again showed that it has no intention to relinquish its
ambitions for an empire and is sticking to its aggressive policy,"
he said.

Gambar said the free world "now realizes that there is no hope for
Russia’s contribution to the solution of problems regarding the
territorial integrity of South Caucasus states."

"The West has realized that Russia is not an element of stability
in the region, but, on the contrary, a destabilizing factor. In
keeping with this, I think the impact of the developments in Georgia
on the solution of the Garabagh problem will be positive," the party
leader said.

Indeed, notes observers, Russia has demonstrated what it stands for,
and the point is that Moscow, disregarding international law, is openly
supporting separatism. This being said, a valid question arises: how
can a country backing the separatist regimes in Georgia’s breakaway
republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia be brokering a settlement to
the Garabagh conflict?

Russia, along with the United States and France, co-chairs a team
of diplomats called the OSCE Minsk Group, which is brokering the
peace process.

According to the Musavat chairman, the latest developments have shown
that Russia now has no right to act as a mediator in the resolution
of any conflicts.

"And, as long as Russia is among the ‘peacekeepers’, any solution to
the Garabagh conflict is out of the question. So, realizing that truth
will foster a change in the approach to dealing with the problem,"
he said.

Azerbaijani analyst Hikmat Hajizada said the developments in Georgia
would definitely affect the Garabagh settlement.

"First of all, it has become clear to many Azerbaijanis that we can’t
just go ahead and launch a war in Upper Garabagh. And this is clear,
as Russia and Armenia are behind Upper Garabagh [the self-proclaimed
republic], while we don’t have anyone behind us. Hence, based on
what went on in Georgia, everyone understood that you can’t wage a
one-on-one war with Russia."

Secondly, Armenia will "feel more comfortable" at peace talks with
Azerbaijan if Moscow strengthens its positions in South Ossetia. These
are the adverse ramifications.

"But there are also positive sides to these events. The Russia-Georgia
conflict has finally drawn the international community’s attention
to the problems facing the South Caucasus," he said.

Hajizada said the West has realized that these problems "concern it
as well, and this should be kept in mind."

"In light of these developments, I believe Azerbaijan has two ways
to go: to integrate into NATO or find itself a powerful ally so that
it can counter the Russia-Armenia alliance," Hajizada added.