Chicago Tribune, IL
Aug 23 2008
Russian incursion sounds regional alarm
West-allied former Moscow dominions fear they’re next
By Alex Rodriguez | Chicago Tribune correspondent
5:24 PM CDT, August 23, 2008
TBILISI, Georgia ‘ The bombs dropped by Russian planes fell in
Georgia, but the shudder also coursed through nearby nations that once
existed under Moscow’s thumb during the Soviet era.
For countries like Ukraine, Azerbaijan and the Baltic nations of
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, Russia’s invasion and occupation of
West-allied Georgia is rekindling haunting memories of a Soviet-era
Kremlin that used its military might to keep its Eastern European
populations in lock step with Moscow.
Today, former Soviet republics and East bloc nations that long ago
switched alliances westward have been watching the events in Georgia
with alarm, wondering whether they might be next in line.
"This conflict in Georgia is a kind of 9/11 for Russia’s neighbors, an
event that changed all the security-related thinking in our
countries," said Kadri Liik, director of the International Center for
Defense Studies in Tallinn, Estonia’s capital.
>From 1999 to 2004, the Kremlin watched helplessly as 10 nations once
ruled by Moscow joined NATO, the Western military alliance that
shields its members with "attack one, attack all" armor. Since then
the Kremlin has rebounded on the shoulders of record oil prices and
has solidified Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and natural gas.
Russia has been ready to flex its newfound geopolitical might for some
time, experts say, and the conflict with tiny Georgia, a nation led by
a U.S.-allied president the Kremlin despises, gave Moscow the perfect
arena.
Now Russia’s neighbors worry that the Kremlin may expand that
arena. Countries that have adopted pro-West policies, such as Ukraine
and Azerbaijan, lie within what used to be the Soviet sphere of
influence that Moscow yearns to regain.
Ukraine under threat
Ukrainians have especially watched with trepidation as events unfolded
in Georgia. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has been pursuing
NATO membership for his country in the face of Moscow opposition,
including a threat last year from former President Vladimir Putin that
Russia would re-aim nuclear missiles toward Ukraine if it ever joined
NATO.
If an underlying aim in Russia’s incursion into Georgia was to warn
Ukraine and other former Soviet states about the perils of aligning
with NATO, the strategy may have backfired, experts say.
"Russia’s disproportionate actions in the Caucasus have raised a lot
of concerns here, and the concerns are growing," said Alexei Haran, a
political science professor at Kiev-Mohila Academy in Kiev. "The
number of supporters of the idea of joining NATO is likely to
increase."
Former Soviet states that already have joined NATO, such as Estonia,
Latvia and Lithuania, did so partly because they feared a day when
Russia would try to re-exert its influence on its former
satellites. As in Georgia, which is pursuing NATO membership, those
countries’ populations were united in their desire to join the
alliance.
Ukrainians, however, are deeply divided by the question of joining
NATO. The country’s eastern and southern provinces are staunchly
pro-Russian.
Russia has tried to exploit that rift by actively supporting Ukrainian
opposition leaders, and experts believe the Kremlin will continue to
do so. Russia’s best leverage in Ukraine, says Haran, may be its Black
Sea naval fleet, which under a lease agreement is allowed to be based
in the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol in Crimea until 2017.
When Yushchenko recently suggested Ukraine should restrict movements
of those ships in the wake of the Georgian conflict, Russian President
Dmitry Medvedev issued his own warning. "They must not tell us how to
behave," Medvedev said. "Interference in these issues will not lead to
anything good."
Residents anxious
On the streets of Kiev, Ukraine’s capital, anxiety runs high over the
Kremlin’s actions in Georgia.
"If Russia ever attacks Ukraine, the world will know the truth’that
Russia is a real armed monster," said Elena Titova, 32, an
accountant. "That’s why we should hurry up and stay close to NATO."
In Azerbaijan, citizens who embrace President Ilham Aliev’s decision
to align his country more closely with Washington and Western Europe
now worry that the Kremlin will search for ways to force him to
reverse course.
One tack Russia could pursue against Azerbaijan is to derail its
burgeoning energy relationship with the U.S. and European
countries. Azerbaijan ships Caspian Sea oil to Western markets through
a pipeline operated by British energy giant BP.
That pipeline runs through Georgia, and Georgian officials have
accused Russia of targeting the pipeline during its bombing raids on
Georgian territory. Georgia also accused Russia of bombing a key
railroad bridge outside the town of Kaspi that was used to ship
Azerbaijani oil to Western markets.
"It’s clear that the events in Georgia infringe on Azerbaijan’s
interests directly and make Azerbaijan very wary," said Rasim
Musabayev, a foreign affairs analyst based in Baku, Azerbaijan’s
capital.
Like Georgia, Azerbaijan wrestles with separatists in a frozen
conflict that has endured for years and makes Azerbaijan vulnerable to
Kremlin interference. Azerbaijani officials have accused Russia of
arming Armenian separatists who control the enclave of
Nagorno-Karabakh in western Azerbaijan.
Though Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are all members of NATO and the
European Union, their populations have watched with alarm as Russia
pushed its troops deeper into Georgia. A report in The Times newspaper
in London quoting unnamed Russian sources as saying the Kremlin is
considering arming its Baltic naval fleet with nuclear weapons has
only heightened anxiety in the Baltics. Russian officials called the
report baseless.
An Aug. 15 poll by a Tallinn-based survey group found that 83 percent
of Estonians believed the Kremlin’s actions in Georgia endangered
Russia’s neighbors.
"People are indeed worried," Liik said.
Researchers Olga Manmar in Kiev and Talekh Guliev in Moscow
contributed to this report.
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