GEORGIAN CONFLICT PROVIDES LESSONS

Independent.ie
Monday August 25 2008

THERE are multiple causes behind the conflict in Georgia, including
ethnicity, energy resources, Georgian recklessness, Russian aggression,
and unjustified US-inspired NATO expansion.

In fact, all conflicts, like all accidents, are by definition
avoidable.

The conflict in Georgia is not yet resolved and several other potential
conflicts exist, including Chechnya, the unresolved Armenian/Azerbaijan
dispute over Nagorno Karabakh, and potential Russian/Ukrainian fighting
in Crimea.

The solution to such conflicts does not lie with further armed
aggression, or indeed threats of isolation.

After World War II, Finland and Austria were flashpoints in US/Soviet
relations. Austria was initially divided and occupied by US and
Soviet forces.

The solution arrived at was to declare Austria and Finland to be
neutral states, with neutrality enshrined in their constitutions. This
was followed by the withdrawal of all foreign troops and both states
went on to become vibrant neutral democracies.

The Georgian conflict could have been avoided if the US and NATO had
adopted a less confrontational and less threatening approach to Russia.

There is now a real possibility that parts of the Ukraine (with an
ethnic Russian population of at least 17pc) could suffer the same
fate as parts of Georgia.

A solution that could defuse further conflicts in this region would
be to reintroduce the Austrian/Finnish post-World War II solution.

This would entail an international agreement approved by the UN,
that countries such as Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia,
and Azerbaijan, would be declared neutral states.

Such a solution would preclude NATO membership for these states,
and might also preclude membership of the EU if the EU develops a
significant separate military capacity.

The prospects for long-term peace in the Caucasus region would be
enhanced if the EU distanced itself from NATO and developed more
co-operative and less confrontational policies toward Russia.

Countries on the interface between Russia and the European Union,
especially in the Caucasus, should become bridges between East and
West rather than a new Iron Curtain.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress