MODEST KOLEROV: A NEW GREATER CAUCASUS: MUTUAL CONTAINMENT WITHOUT OUTSIDERS. WHAT THERE ARE NOT ALREADY AND CAN BE THERE

Regnum news agency
Aug 21 2008
Russia

The USA has bluntly advised Syria not even express its opinion on a war
in South Ossetia and Georgia’s responsibilities for its outcome and
be busy with own "regional" problems instead. This is a very precise
and opportune thought: for Syria one of the key regional problems is
the alliance between Turkey and Israel. Exactly that Turkey, whose
military, economic, political, special Ajarian and special Abkhaz
interests, is closely connected with Georgia and with its prospects.

Exactly that Israel, which until last days armed Georgia the
aggressor, who quite recently from the lips of own ambassador to
Georgia, maintained that the genocide was only the Holocaust but not
genocide of Armenians in the Ottoman Turkey, who were saved namely
on the territory of the modern Syria and Lebanon controlled by it.

In a nutshell, here we have our own and very complicated, historical
"regional" drama and it is not up to a representative of the other
side of the Moon, unable to find Syria and Caucasus with no reference
to the globe, to come up with methodological orders. However, the USA
noticed the main point correctly: a new Caucasus, in South Ossetia
and Georgia which became a victim of the failed American game in
the "controlled conflict", already cannot allow itself to remain a
field for provocation of strangers and even of those very interested
forces. They managed this in the Balkans but not in the Caucasus.

The issue in question is about the need for a new security system in
the Caucasus, which – irrespective of diplomatic victories and losses,
the number of new wars and genocide for the sake of the rudimentary
survival of the region as a complicated ethno-confessional and
political entity demands a categorical exclusion of "global" players
connected with no vital and physical fate of the Caucasus. [Passage
omitted: criticizing global players]

To wit, those "global" incompetent players urge prime
minister-candidate of Ukraine, Tymoshenko, to sign with her political
name drawn up from a "long telegramme" by [George F.] Kennan
[entitled Containment: 40 years later: then and now] and hardly
Hitlerite editorial of American article "Containment of Russia"
where for the sake of the same "containment"

No doubt, in the Caucasus and without such players the need for the
rational containment of the states of the region, which can only
be mutual and fully reciprocal responsibility for the Caucasus. Any
containment from outside with already its contrast is manipulation.

Completing the foreword to the following thesis, I want to note that
they are developing and expanding an approach to a new security system
in the Caucasus, systematically stated by the editor-in-chief of
Regnum news agency, Vigen Akopyan, in the article "Mortal enemies of
Georgia": consisting of three leaders (Russia, Turkey and Iran). So
as a result of the war in South Ossetia: what do already not exist
politically in the Caucasus and around it? What can be politically
new? To what questions are there not obvious answers there?

What do not exist politically and will not be there?

1. The Commonwealth of Independent States

2. GUAM [the alliance of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova]

3. "The arc of the Baltic-Black Sea" from the Baltic to the Caspian Sea

4. The Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization and similar ones.

5. Georgia incorporating Abkhazia and South Ossetia

6. The Azerbaijani blitzkrieg in Nagornyy Karabakh

7. Azerbaijan incorporating Armenian Nagornyy Karabakh

8. The transit communications corridors from the Caspian to Black
and Mediterranean Seas via the territories of Azerbaijan and Georgia

9. The alternative roles of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan
in supplies of energy resources to the West

10. The role of Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine and Moldova in problems
of Caucasus.

11. Russian separatism in Crimea

12. A project of uniting Adygeya and the Krasnodar Territory of Russia

What can be politically new?

1. The recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia

2. The recognition of Nagornyy Karabakh by Armenia

3. The recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus by
Azerbaijan

4. Georgia’s federalization without South Ossetia and Abkhazia with
granting autonomous status to minimum Kvemo Kartli (Borcali) except
for Ajaria

5. Associated relations between South Ossetia with Russia (North
Ossetia)

6. A system of the regional security set by Russia, Turkey and Iran

7. A system of the regional security of the Caspian littoral states

8. A system of the regional security between Russia, Turkey, Iran,
and Armenia balanced with NATO members: Azerbaijan and Georgia
(and Armenia?)

9. A system of the regional security between Russia, Turkey and Iran,
inclusive Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia.

10. A system of the regional security amongst Russia, Turkey, Iran,
Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, inclusive Abkhazia and South Ossetia
(and Nagornyy Karabakh?)

11. A union between Armenia and Russia similar to the Union of Belarus
and Russia

12. The recognition of the Iraqi Kurdistan by the USA.

13. The federalization of Ukraine

14. A confederation between Moldova and the Dniester.

To what are there not answers?

1. Will a single front of Turkey and Azerbaijan with regard to Georgia
be restored?

2. To what extent will be stable and promising an alliance between
Turkey and Iran especially against Kurdistan?

3. When will Georgia and Azerbaijan join NATO?

4. Will Armenia join NATO?

5. When will a "peace for land" intermediate plan for the Karabakh
regulation be realized?

6. Will a new security system guarantee a corridor from Azerbaijan to
the Naxcivan autonomy on the analogy of the Lacin corridor to Karabakh
[from Armenia], or will Turkey remain a protector of Naxcivan?

7. When will the Crimean-Tatar separatism in Crimea be realized?

8. Will Turkey become second after Russia a security guarantor of an
independent Abkhazia?

9. What new targets will determine for themselves radical Islamic
and other sabotage underground in Russia’s North Caucasus as well as
in Abkhazia?