RADICALLY NEW SITUATION IN THE REGION
Lilit Poghosyan

Hayots Ashkhar Daily
26 Aug 2008
Armenia

Political Scientist Alexander Iskandaryan introduces his viewpoints
regarding the consequences of Georgian-Osatian military clash and
the possible developments.

"Russian people will leave Georgia, I mean Georgian territory without
South Osatia and Abkhazia. But it is a big question when it will
happen, in three months, three weeks or during six months. Anyhow
there will be no Russians in Potty, Senaky and even Gory.

The situation is different 15 km from South Osatia. It is very
difficult to overestimate the significance of this sector, because this
is the section linking different South Osatian regions. Anyhow from
the point of view of the long term, in my view hardly will the Russian
troops stay in that sector; sooner or later they will be withdrawn.

On the other hand it is evident that after those events
Georgia will never become pro-Russian, no matter who will be its
President. Anti-Russian dispositions will not be annihilated there. On
the contrary they will become stronger and the Russians won’t have
warm feelings towards the Georgians. Today the Georgians are shocked
but it will pass.

Meanwhile in Georgia especially in Tbilisy certain patriotic movements
are noticed. Certain destabilization is also possible but I hope it
will not last long. God willing Georgian people will find strength
to get rid of the consequences of the five-day war and restore the
practically exhausted country. They need years for that.

"What key conclusion can we draw from the "Georgian scenario"?

"In my view it is clear for everyone that in the visible future the
military solution of the issue is really unrealistic. The settlement
of the issue by means of negotiations is also unacceptable because
South Osatia and Abkhazia will never agree to it.

And by the way Nagorno Karabakh (because parallels are unavoidable
here) everyone understands what’s going on. A country that ranks
first in terms of its military potential, that has 30 times increased
its military budget during the recent years, and the army of which
is being trained by the "most professional" instructors fighting
terrorism in some minutes dispersed everything.

If those who took decision before the war were aware of the
ineffectiveness of the war, political scientists and analysts,
they understand that the consequences of the war are not directly
proportional to the military trainings and money spent on the
armaments.