RUSSIA TAKES ONE STEP CLOSER TO A NEW COLD WAR
by Taras Kuzio

Kyiv Post
Aug 26 2008
Ukraine

The Russian parliament’s unanimous endorsement of the independence of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia is a dangerous step towards conflict in
the former Soviet Union and another step towards a new Cold War. In
both instances Russia loses.

Western and Ukrainian apologists of Russia’s new imperialism can no
longer say, as they did until recently, that the Russian parliament
undertook policies that were not always endorsed by the president.

This was the argument that was used under President Boris
Yeltsin. Under President or Prime minister Vladimir Putin this
argument is bogus. The Russian parliament is no longer an independent
institution and, since Russia’s last two elections, both houses of
parliament are controlled by the executive as part of Russia’s managed
democracy and militocracy.

After recovering from its nationalistic hangover Russia, in promoting
territorial expansionism towards Georgia, will lose the new Cold War.

Russia’s de facto annexation opens up a pandora’s box among former
Soviet republics and within the Russian Federation itself. If South
Ossetia and Abkhazia can be independent, then why not Transdniestr,
Nagorno-Karabakh or Chechnya?

Russia’s relations with its Commonwealth of Independent States
neighbors will deteriorate, leading to a negative impact on Russia’s
hopes for CIS integration. The loss of South Ossetia and Abkhazia
will make it easier for Georgia to enter NATO, just like the loss of
Kosovo has made it easier for Serbia to join the European Union.

Russia’s imperialism in Georgia will also return support levels in
Ukraine for NATO membership to their pre-Iraqi invasion levels when a
third of Ukraine’s population backed membership. Obtaining 51 percent
in a referendum is easier to accomplish when your starting base is 33
percent, rather than 20 percent. Any attempt at repeating the Putin
Doctrine in the Crimea would increase support in Ukraine for NATO
membership to over a third.

Russia will lose out in any Cold War confrontation with the West,
as the USSR lost in the 1990s when it competed with Ronald Reagan’s
USA. Russia’s highly corrupt autocratic regime has neither the
resources, ideology nor allies that the USSR possessed, factors which
still did not prevent the Soviet Union from losing the Cold War and
disintegrating. Perhaps Russia’s new rulers should be advised to
watch the recent U.S. film "Charlie’s War" on U.S. support to the
Afghan freedom fighters in the 1980s.

Russia’s new imperialism will increase the chances that U.S. Sen. John
McCain will win this year’s U.S. elections, the candidate least liked
by Moscow.

The near unanimous Western criticism of Russian imperialism in Georgia
(even the passive EU has called an extraordinary meeting on Sept. 1)
has pushed many non-committal NATO members towards support for
Ukrainian and Georgian inclusion into NATO Membership Action Plans
at the December review meeting.

Russia’s new imperialism is the last stage of the disintegration
of the Soviet empire that was delayed during the Yeltsin era by
many years of alcoholism, mass corruption and a brutal invasion of
Chechnya. As in the 1980s, Russia will ultimately lose again and face
its own disintegration.