RUSSIA’S WITHDRAWAL: WILL IT GARNER FAVOR WITH THE WESTERN ALLIANCE?
by Tulin Daloglu

Washington Times
Aug 26 2008
DC

Georgia’s aspirations to NATO membership could affect the
sustainability and success of the alliance in Afghanistan. During
April’s NATO summit in Bucharest, Russia committed to support NATO’s
supply lines to Afghanistan across Russian Federation territory. While
American troops’ supply lines run mainly through Pakistan, Russian
cooperation is no little thing. After the NATO foreign ministers
held an emergency meeting last week in Brussels amidst the fighting
between Georgia and Russia, they issued a strongly worded statement
saying that there will be no "business as usual" until all Russian
troops withdraw from all parts of Georgia. Then Moscow announced its
suspension of all military cooperation with NATO.

The debate over who to blame for this war in Central Asia becomes
less important if Russia has leverage over the NATO operation in
Afghanistan. Russia is waiting to see how the Western alliance reacts
to its withdrawal from Georgia before deciding what to do next. "It
would depend on whether the Russians simply stop being positive,
which probably wouldn’t have much of an effect," James Dobbins,
the former special envoy for Afghanistan, said last week at a New
America Foundation event. "[If] they start being negative… [if]
they start using their influence on Central Asian governments to get
them to stop [cooperating with NATO and stop supporting supply lines
to Afghanistan across their territory], then it could be a more serious
problem." In fact, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said clearly
last Thursday that Russia does not need the cooperation as much as
NATO does. "Russia’s support [in Afghanistan] is crucial for NATO,"
he said. Pakistan is the most serious obstacle to NATO’s success in
Afghanistan, but Russia has certainly made its point to all Central
Asian countries that crossing its lines will cost them dearly.

According to European Union experts, [Georgia] suffered some $1
billion in direct infrastructural loses, and will lose a projected $1
billion more in direct foreign investment over the next year or so,"
wrote Thomas Goltz, author of "Georgia Diary," from Tblisi. "Get
ready for a long, cold winter in Georgia, with social chaos around
the corner." The Western alliance’s military strength in the Middle
East and the Caucasus looks to be waning. Longtime U.S. allies have
begun to flirt with alternative future alliances.

Last week, Jordan’s King Abdullah flew to Moscow for the third time
in six months. Syrian President Assad visited Moscow to seek defense
cooperation. Even more interestingly, Turkish Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan visited Russia to launch a "Caucasus Stability and
Co-operation Platform," aiming to bring Turkey, Russia, Georgia,
Azerbaijan and Armenia to the table. Although the initiative is
unlikely to go any further, Washington was caught totally off guard. A
U.S. official told me that the strategic vision document between the
United States and Turkey that was agreed upon about two years ago
included a commitment by Ankara to inform and consult Washington
on these matters. The ruling party also needed U.S. support, and
that document was presented as evidence of success in its foreign
policy. Now it’s been forgotten. Yet Turkey allowed three U.S. military
ships to pass through Turkish straights to deliver humanitarian aid
to Georgia.

All of this is happening as France, which brokered the deal between
Russia and Georgia, lost 10 soldiers in an ambush in Afghanistan –
the country’s worst military loss in nearly three decades. It also
coincides with the resignation of Pakistani President Pervez Musharaf,
raising concerns about that country’s stability. But Pakistan’s
ambassador to Washington, Hussain Haqqani, celebrates Mr. Musharaf’s
resignation as a sign of democracy in Pakistan. "[E]verybody who
disliked him disliked the United States. I think that has changed (with
his resignation)," Mr. Haqqani said. But Mr. Musharraf’s resignation
will not boost America’s image in Pakistan, nor will it make fighting
al Qaeda and the radical Islamist ideology any easier. In fact, until
true rule of law is established in Pakistan, and until a forceful
crackdown on radical Islamist ideology takes place, talk of democracy
in Pakistan will only serve to make people feel a little better.

But if Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of Benazir Bhutto, is seen as
a possible successor to Mr. Musharraf, the rule of law will not be
well represented. Mr. Zardari’s name has been linked persistently to
corruption allegations inside and outside his country – and as such,
would cast suspicion on any discussion of democracy. The U.S. is
also limited in the kind of pressure it can apply to Pakistan, which
can say, "*top using us (Pakistan) as a transit line to Afghanistan,
and then we’re sort of stuck," Mr. Dobbins said. And that makes the
Russian role, "[n]ot an insignificant point of leverage." Realistically
speaking, that could end Georgia’s ambitions to become a NATO member
any time soon.