THE VIEW FROM THE KREMLIN
Western Morning News
August 25, 2008 Monday
Plymouth
He diplomatic war of words flew. Nato announced curtly that it would
no longer "do business as usual" with Russia. Russia promptly snapped
back that it would not "do business as usual" with Nato – which may
have some awkward consequences for the supply lines to Nato troops
in Afghanistan, some of which are sent overland through Russia,
with Moscow’s consent.
No matter. Neither side is giving any quarter. At the time of writing
Russia was still pulling the vast majority of its troops out of
Georgia, but Nato remains bristling.
An emergency meeting of the Western alliance warned Moscow last week
that it would not be allowed to draw any "new line" in Europe that
prevented Georgia and other like-minded countries from joining Nato
should they so wish.
And we all know these smaller countries do so wish. Georgia, for
one, is absolutely gagging to join Nato. For Tbilisi, it is the only
possible protection from the menace of the Russian bear.
But let us flip the coin. What follows is not a justification of the
Russian regime, let alone its invasion of Georgia.
But if we are to manage the present crisis intelligently it is vital
that we in turn understand that, from the Kremlin’s perspective,
it is not Russia but Nato that is drawing the new line in Europe.
It is Nato that is rampantly extending its reach right up to the
Russian borders.
To those in the West, accustomed to viewing Nato as an entirely benign
organisation, that might seem an inconsequential development – but
that’s not how they see it in Russia.
Since its formation, right the way through the Cold War, Nato was
a terrifying nuclear alliance expressly pitted against the might of
Soviet Russia.
The collapse of communism and the removal of a political system that
was committed to the destruction of Western values enabled a fresh
start. Hands of friendship were extended that would never have been
possible when most of us were children.
The hopeful believed that with the rise of fundamental Islamic
terrorism, the old Nato versus Russia antagonism would be forgotten
as both forces regrouped to combat a mutual enemy.
The trouble is that neither forgot the old combat. Russia’s grip on the
energy supplies for much of Europe alarms EU governments, while Russia
itself has become extremely jumpy as first the European Union and
then Nato have extended their warm embraces to its former satellites.
It has been nerve-racking for Moscow to see Hungary, Poland, the
Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Romania,
Slovakia and Slovenia all scuttle into the Nato tent.
It had no illusion that these former satellites had fled to Nato
precisely for protection from itself, and however bellicose or not
the Kremlin was, the knowledge that Nato was prepared to extend its
protection to its former satellites was seen as an aggressive act.
Moreover, with the membership of Estonia and Latvia, Nato’s military
might now reach right up to the Russian border, albeit only along a
small proportion of it.
But Nato did not stop there. It opened dialogue with a host of
other countries Russia once considered its own. Under the so-called
Partnership for Peace programme, Nato began forging its own direct
links with Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, the Kyrghyz
Republic, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia, Tajikistan, the former Yugoslav
Republic of Macedonia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. And those were
just the pygmies.
Nato also formed "Partnerships for Peace" with those three major
nations on Russia’s underbelly – Georgia, Belarus and the Ukraine.
To calm the Kremlin’s nerves, Nato also opened a Partnership for Peace
dialogue with Russia itself, but if you are of a mildly paranoid
disposition it is easy to see how Russia would remain profoundly
discomfited by the onward march of Nato’s influence into regions
Russia has historically considered to be its own stamping ground.
Russian fears have been fuelled by two further developments. The
first was the decision by Nato’s April summit to consider applications
from both Georgia and the Ukraine to become full-blooded members of
the alliance. Russia’s envoy to Nato, Dmitry Rogozin, declared that
"pushing Georgia into the alliance is a provocation that could lead
to a bloodbath".
The second was the agreements the Americans struck with Poland and the
Czech Republic to base sections of its missile defence shield on their
soil – a shield the Russians believe to be targeted against themselves.
Let us be clear. Russia is a dangerous and unpredictable power. It
needs to be handled firmly, but it must also be handled wisely.
I repeat my conclusion from last week. Goading the bear that has
an iron grip on much of your energy supplies when you yourself are
overstretched in Iraq and Afghanistan is folly of the highest order.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
