RELUCTANT BAKU SAYS ARMENIA VISIT DECISION UP TO TURKEY

Today’s Zaman
Aug 30 2008
Turkey

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov has met with Turkish
officials in Ankara to discuss a crisis in the Caucasus that Turkey
hopes can be resolved through dialogue among regional countries that
would include Armenia, with which Azerbaijan is officially at war
with over the occupied region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Turkey, in contrast to its NATO allies, has refrained from a strong
condemnation of Russia after it fought a brief war against Georgia
and later recognized two Georgian breakaway regions, South Ossetia
and Abkhazia, as independent states. Instead, Ankara has proposed
a Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform, a scheme that calls
for new methods of crisis management and conflict resolution. But
involvement of Armenia is problematic in the mechanism, given that
Turkey has no formal ties with Armenia and that Azerbaijan is still
in a state of war with Yerevan due to its continued occupation of
Nagorno-Karabakh.

But there have been developments that suggest a thaw in Turkey-Armenia
relations. It has emerged that Turkish and Armenian diplomats have been
holding secret talks on normalization of ties, and Armenian President
Serzh Sarksyan has invited his Turkish counterpart, Abdullah Gul, to
watch a World Cup qualifying game between the national teams of the
two countries on Sept. 6. Gul says he is still considering whether
to accept the invitation.

Asked to comment on a possible visit by Gul to Yerevan, Mammadyarov
declined to comment. "This is a decision that the president of Turkey
will make," he told reporters upon his arrival in Ankara. He met his
Turkish counterpart, Ali Babacan, President Gul and Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan later in the day.

Speaking after talks with Mammadyarov at a brief press conference,
Babacan assured Azerbaijan that Turkey and Azerbaijan were "strategic
partners" acting with an understanding that they share the same destiny
in all areas, in an apparent reference to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.

But Mammadyarov, in turn, was less enthusiastic about supporting a
US-backed pipeline to transfer natural gas from the Caspian region
to Europe via Turkey. Asked about Russian readiness to buy Azeri
natural gas, something that could deal a blow to the planned pipeline,
Mammadyarov said Azerbaijan would consider profit while deciding on
the offer. "We haven’t given a response yet. Talks are continuing,"
he said before meeting with Babacan.

Azeri gas is set to become a major source of supply for the planned
Nabucco pipeline, a cornerstone of Europe’s policies to diversify away
from heavy reliance on Russian gas. Pressed to say whether accepting
the Russian offer would undermine Nabucco, Mammadyarov said, "This
is a matter of trade and profitability."

Turkey closed its border with Armenia and severed formal ties after
Armenia occupied Nagorno-Karabakh. Normalization of ties depends
on Armenian withdrawal from the Azerbaijani territory, Yerevan’s
shelving of support for Armenian diaspora efforts to win international
recognition for Armenian genocide claims and formal recognition by
Armenia of the current border with Turkey.

Azerbaijan, Turkey’s regional and ethnic ally, is likely to be offended
by any rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia. But the recent crisis
in the Caucasus may force a rethinking of regional balances. The
Russian operation in Georgia raised questions about the security of
regional transportation and energy transfer lines. With its Armenian
border closed, Turkey relies on Georgia as an outlet to the Caucasus.

The proposed Caucasus platform will also require a restoration of
some sort of dialogue between both Armenia and Turkey and Armenia and
Azerbaijan. Turkish officials have said Armenia will definitely become
a part of the proposed platform and that formalities of the dialogue
with Yerevan will be decided after further talks with Armenian ally
Russia, raising expectations that dialogue between Ankara and Yerevan
could take place via Moscow’s mediation.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will arrive in Turkey early next
week for talks on the proposed Caucasus platform. On Sunday, Georgian
Foreign Minister Eka Tkeshelashvili will have talks in Ä°stanbul on
the situation in the region and on the potential Caucasus platform.

Azerbaijanis cool to Gul visit

In the streets of Azerbaijani capital Baku, public opinion is divided
but mostly cool to a possible visit by Gul to Armenia to watch the
World Cup qualifying game on Sept. 6.

"Gul should not go there because there will be provocation and
chaos if he goes. No one will be welcoming if Gul agrees to visit,"
said Akif Rustemov, a teacher, to Cihan news agency. He softened
his opposition when asked whether Gul and Sarksyan should discuss
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. "If this is the case, then he should
go. In fact, our president, Ilham Aliyev, should also join. Foreign
mediators have been trying to find a solution for 17 years, but
nothing happens. We have to solve this ourselves."

"Gul should not go to Armenia because it is a hostile country,"
said Ahmed Halilov, a civil servant, to Cihan. "If it’s an enemy of
Azerbaijan then it’s also an enemy of Turkey because we — as our
politicians say — are one nation with two states."

Mahmud Necefov, however, disagreed, saying Gul should visit Armenia
and discuss every issue of dispute. "Political issues should be taken
up and the Nagorno-Karabakh issue should definitely be discussed,"
he said. "I think he should go and discuss everything."

In remarks published yesterday, Gul refused to give a hint on whether
he is planning to go but sent warm messages to Armenia. "We want to
solve our problems with all neighbors. This is our region and we are
all children of this region. Turks and Armenians live side by side
in these lands," Gul told Radikal daily.

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