WEST CAN PROMPT AZERBAIJAN TO SOLVE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT BY FORCE: RUSSIAN POLITICAL EXPERT

Trend News Agency
Aug 29 2008
Azerbaijan

Russia, Moscow, 29 August /corr. Trend News R.Agayev / There are
threats that the West fully may push the leadership of Azerbaijan to
forcibly settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, said the Director of
the Globalization Problems Institute, Mikhail Delyagin.

According to him, in the present stage the ratio of forces in the
zone of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has strongly changed. "West’s
encouraging Azerbaijan to war will be not the achievement of military
success, but exactly that Russia, traditionally sympathized with the
Armenians, expressed its sympathy, finally quarreled with Azerbaijan
and thus lost any influence on it, as it lost in Georgia," Delyagin
said at the briefing of politicians in Moscow "Russia-Georgia- USA:
war for the resources?".

According to him, the energy component was and is the main reason
for the war of Russia with Georgia. Delyagin considers that Mikhail
Saakashvili had solid guarantees at the high political level in the
political and information support, which obtained unconditionally. But,
in the opinion politician, some people, overstepping their authorities,
gave it other guarantees of military support and non-intervention of
Russia in this process.

Delyagin noted that the reason for this unconditional support to
Georgia in the world is not Russophobia, but clear strategic task
and concrete interest that the gas of Central Asia would go to
Europe by-passing Russia. In particular, this can be realized due to
construction of gas pipeline Nabucco, and also Trans-Caspian pipeline,
which beyond Russia, can go only via the territory of Azerbaijan and
Georgia. "The West imposed task to minimize the influence Russian
Federation on these two countries, i.e. Russia never could have
influence, even theoretically, on these countries," he said.

The politician considers that due to the reasonable position of
the Government of Azerbaijan, which demonstrated in the conflict
of Russia with Georgia, the importance of Azerbaijan undoubtedly
strengthened. In Delyagin’s opinion, experiment with the distribution
of the Russian passports to the inhabitants of unrecognized formations
will never be repeated due to internal political reasons. In addition,
Russia does not have such people, who would live in the territory
of Nagorno-Karabakh and would be divided as Ossetians. Therefore,
it is not worthwhile to fear this.

"Azerbaijani leadership has always taken balanced and reasonable policy
in the hardest times of our relations, but now the wounds bleed less
than they bled then. And if Azerbaijan does not fall under influence of
provocations of developed countries, which will be carried out in its
relations after some time, everything will be good," he said and added
that Russia can not take active position in the Armenian-Azerbaijani
conflict as it has close ties with both parties.

According to Delyagin, if Russia acted in a right way toward Georgia,
then it would be necessary not only to catch those guilty for genocide,
but also to submit them to the International Court, but also to assess
the actions of Georgia as a display of international terrorism and
to try to destroy Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline as an instrument of
financing of international terrorism.

According to expert, there are discussions going on in West on how to
achieve international isolation of Russia, but West will not be able to
punish Russia as it desires. "In any case Russia should forget about
South Stream project and North Stream project would be better to be
frozen for several years. It is not so bad, as we should think how to
meet out own demands under such dynamics of gas production," he added.

The expert said that the inefficiency of West’s intentions is that it
will lead to the isolation of Europe itself. "Besides, one should not
expect record oil prices as the price of ‘black gold’ will increase
gradually and can total to not more than $125 a barrel in autumn. The
oil output in Russia dropped by 1.5% a month as a result of July
but gas output increases as much as this amount due to the internal
reserves," Delyagin said.

According to political expert, the world becomes bipolar, but not in
the scheme of US-Russia, but that of US-China as in this situation US
fulfils the role that SSSR played once. "China gradually takes a lead
not only in Shanghai Cooperation Organization, but also in Central Asia
and Russia in this case can take balance of powers as after some time
even nuclear potential of Russia will not be taken into consideration,"
Mikhail Delyagin, director of Globalization Problems Institute said.