FAREWELL TO ILLUSION. SOUTH OSSETIAN EVENTS LAY BARE CRISIS IN RUSSIA’S MILITARY-POLITICAL RELATIONS WITH CLOSEST ALLIES
by Vladimir Mukhin

Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Aug 22 2008
Russia

Military cooperation of CIS countries is falling apart before the
eyes of ODKB General Secretary Nikolay Bordyuzha (22 August 2008,
Nezavisimaya Gazeta)

Most of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (ODKB) member
countries that are considered Russia’s closest allies have an extremely
reserved attitude towards its tough actions taken to repel the Georgian
aggression in South Ossetia. It became obvious following a routine
summit meeting held by defence ministers in Yerevan yesterday [21
August]. Its participants refrained from openly supporting Moscow’s
military actions against Georgia.

Only just recently, the ODKB leaders made declarations on plans
to form peacekeeping subunits and the possibility of engaging them
in operations in hot spots on CIS territory. These plans have been
forgotten now, while Russia’s ODKB allies either keep silent about
the peace-coercing operation or cover it in the tone that does not
suit Russian interests.

Even though ODKB General Secretary Nikolay Bordyuzha expressed an
unfavourable assessment of Georgian actions on behalf of the ODKB
Permanent Council, that organization eventually produced no specific
documents. In addition, Bordyuzha declared that "an assessment of
the entire situation that is currently shaping not only in Georgia or
South Ossetia but also in the foreign-policy area as a whole" would
be made at the summits to be held by the foreign diplomatic chiefs and
leaders of ODKB member states next September. Will it not be too late?

Uzbekistan, which was backed by Moscow in the rebellious days of 2005
Andijon events, has still not voiced its position on Moscow’s actions
in South Ossetia.

Also silent is Tajikistan, whose independence and territorial integrity
were defended by Russia and its ODKB allies in the early 1990’s.

At a meeting with the Kazakhstani president the other day,
Kyrgyzstani leader Kurmanbek Bakiyev declared: "Conflicts such as
the one between Russia and Georgia should be resolved exclusively
based on international law and only by political and diplomatic
methods." Meanwhile, Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev
emphasized for his part that "Russian mass media described the
situation as a humanitarian catastrophe and genocide of Ossetian
people. The truth will probably become clear later." Thus, they have
already decided that the military force applied by Russia against
Georgia was unjustified.

One would think that Armenia should be interested in military support
of the Russian Federation but that country, too, is sitting on two
chairs. During the military fighting in South Ossetia, the Armenian
Foreign Ministry expressed its hope that the warring sides would
make efforts to resolve as soon as possible disputable issues through
dialogue but did not condemn in any way the facts of aggression and
genocide. Let us note that shortly before the Armenian military took
part in NATO’s Immediate Response 2008 exercises, whose scenario
resembled significantly the dynamics of military operations in South
Ossetia.

Today, on 22 August, is the beginning of the fourth and final stage of
the joint command and staff ODKB Rubezh 2008 exercises, whose active
phase will be held on the Marshall Bagramyan training grounds located
40 km west of Yerevan. After accomplishing tasks aimed at organizing
a joint defence operation protecting sovereignty and territorial
integrity of Armenia, the troops will practice actions intended to
rebuff an aggressor’s invasion. But the question of who should be
considered an aggressor remains sort of off screen, and so does the
fact that of all the seven ODKB countries only Armenian and Russian
subunits really take part in the manoeuvres.

After finishing the ODKB military manoeuvres, Armenia will smoothly
start exercises with NATO countries Joint Bow/Joint Lancebearer on
its territory in late September. Their scenario will be based on NATO
documents "on actions in reaction to crises." Thus, it may happen one
day that specifically NATO becomes the main guarantor of stability
in the Caucasus.