RUSSIAN PUNDIT OUTLINES NEW REGIONAL MAP IN WAKE OF GEORGIA WAR
Regnum
Aug 21 2008
Russia
Modest Kolerov, a former department chief at the Russian presidential
administration and now the chairman of the Free Russia Public
Association Union, has suggested a new regional map following the
war between Russia and Georgia. He slammed the US involvement in the
Caucasus, in particular, in Georgia, accusing the USA of all problems
in the region. Kolerov believes the US efforts will not reach the
target in the Caucasus despite its success in the Balkans. Kolerov
urged the USA, which has no historical connection to the region, to
leave it. The following is the text of report in English by Russian
internet news agency Regnum, specializing in regional reporting,
on 21 August headlined "Modest Kolerov: The New Big Caucasus. Mutual
containment without aliens. What exists no more and what can happen":
The USA advised quite roughly to Syria not even to speak about the
war in South Ossetia and responsibility of Georgia for its outcomes,
but to occupy itself with "regional" problems instead. It is quite
a precise and timely idea: for Syria, one of key regional problems
is the alliance of Turkey and Israel. The Turkey whose military,
economic, political, special Ajarian and special Abkhaz interests
are intertwined with Georgia and its prospects. And the Israel who
had been arming Georgia – the aggressor – up to the most recent days,
who stated by lips of its ambassador to Georgia that Holocaust only
was the genocide, rather than the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman
Empire (Armenians once found their shelter in the territory of the
current Syria and Lebanon controlled by it).
To cut it short, here we have our own complicated, historical
"regional" drama. It is not for a representative of the other side
of the Moon, who is unable to find Syria and the Caucasus without
consulting a global map, to step forward with methodological
instructions. However, the USA unwillingly noted rightly the main
thing: the new Caucasus that fell prey to the failed American game
in a "controllable conflict" in South Ossetia and Georgia cannot
afford remaining the ground for provocations of stranger, be they
very interested, parties. The Balkans managed to do this, but the
Caucasus failed.
The matter is about the need for a new system of security in the
Caucasus that, independently from diplomatic victories and failures,
from number of new wars and genocides, will call for absolute exclusion
of "global" players, who are not connected with the fate of the
Caucasus in terms of life or physically, for simple survival of the
region as a most complicated ethnic, religious and political unity.
It is these "global" incompetent players that force Ukrainian
premier-contender [Yuliya] Tymoshenko sign by her political name an
article made of the Kennan’s "long telegram" and almost Hitler-style
main features, headlined "Containing Russia". For the same purpose of
"containment," they bring to Tbilisi a descent of leaders of the Baltic
countries, Poland and Ukraine touring far away from their domestic
problems. Or, they glue together the poverty-struck Moldova with the
well-off Azerbaijan into the internally unmotivated GUAM. It would
be of the same dubious nature, if, for instance, Indonesia sponsored
"containment" of Argentina by including the neighbouring Paraguay
into a pro-Indonesian alliance named after Java Island… [ellipses
as given]
In the Caucasus, even without such players, the need for rational
containment of regional nations is unquestionable; such containment can
be only mutual and full of mutual responsibility for the Caucasus. Any
containment from outside is its opposition, a manipulation.
Completing the foreword to the following assertions I would like to
stress they are extending the approach to the new system of security
in the Caucasus systematically developed by Regnum Editor-in-Chief
Vigen Hakopyan in his article "Georgia’s mortal enemies" (in
Russian) comprised of three leaders (Russia, Turkey, Iran) and three
"middleweights" (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia). Thus, as a result of
the war in South Ossetia, what does no more exist politically in the
Caucasus and around it? What politically new things can appear? What
questions have no evident answers?
What does no more exist politically and will never exist again in
the Caucasus and around it?
1. The Commonwealth of Independent States
2. GUAM
3. "The Baltic – Black Sea arc" from the Baltic to Caspian Sea
4. The Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization and similar types
5. Georgia that includes Abkhazia and South Ossetia
6. Azerbaijan’s blitzkrieg in Nagornyy Karabakh
7. Azerbaijan including the Armenian Nagornyy Karabakh
8. Transit communication corridors from the Caspian Sea to the Black
and Mediterranean Sea through the territories of Azerbaijan and Georgia
9. Alternative role of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan in
delivery of energy carriers to the West
10. Participation of Bulgaria, Ukraine, Moldova in Caucasus issues
11. Russian separatism in Crimea
12. Project of unification of Adygea and Krasnodar Territory in Russia
What political novelties can appear?
1. Recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia
2. Recognition of Nagornyy Karabakh by Armenia
3. Recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus
4. Federalization of Georgia without South Ossetia and Abkhazia with
autonomization of, apart from Ajaria, at least Kvemo Kartli (Borcali).
5. Associate relations of South Ossetia with Russia (North Ossetia)
6. Regional security system established by Russia, Turkey and Iran
7. Regional security system of Caspian Sea nations
8. Regional security system of Russia, Turkey, Iran and Armenia
counterbalanced by NATO members: Azerbaijan and Georgia (and Armenia?)
9. Regional security system of Russia, Turkey, and Iran, including
Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia.
10. Regional security system of Russia, Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Armenia, including Abkhazia and South Ossetia (and
Nagornyy Karabakh?)
11. Armenia-Russian union similar to the Belarus-Russia Union State
12. Recognition of Iraqi Kurdistan as an independent state by the USA
13. Federalization of Ukraine
14. Confederation of Moldova and Dniester
What questions have no answer?
1. Will the united front of Turkey and Azerbaijan be restored
regarding Georgia?
2. How stable and perspective will be the alliance of Turkey and Iran,
especially against Kurdistan?
3. When will Georgia and Azerbaijan enter NATO?
4. Will Armenia join NATO?
5. When will the provisional plan of the Karabakh settlement "peace
for territories" be implemented?
6. Does the new security system guarantee a corridor from Azerbaijan
to Naxcivan Autonomy [the Naxcivan Autonomous Republic] like the
Lacin corridor into Karabakh, will Turkey remain protector of Naxcivan?
7. When will the Crimean-Tatar separatism come in practice in Crimea?
8. Will Turkey become the second after Russia guarantor of security
of an independent Abkhazia?
9. What new goals will be set by the radical Islamist and other
subversive underground in Russia’s North Caucasus and in Abkhazia?
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
