STUCK IN GEORGIA

New York Times
weds1.html
Aug 27 2008

This is where things stand nearly three weeks after Russia invaded
Georgia and radically upended ties with the West: Russian troops still
occupy key areas including the port of Poti; Moscow has recognized the
independence of Georgia’s two breakaway regions; Georgia’s president,
Mikheil Saakashvili, is still talking tough even though his army is
routed and his country shattered.

And if that isn’t unnerving enough, President Bush has decided to
dispatch Vice President Dick Cheney, that master of diplomacy, to
the region.

Awash in oil wealth and giddy after crushing tiny Georgia, Russia’s
leaders are striking back at real and imagined humiliations. The
West’s failure to fully marshal its leverage is painful to watch. But
Russia also has a lot to lose. Moscow’s decision to recognize South
Ossetia and Abkhazia will only harden battle lines and sow further
regional instability.

Recognizing these enclaves could inspire a host of rebellions around
and inside Russia: Transdniester from Moldova, Nagorno-Karabakh from
Azerbaijan and the oil-rich province of Tatarstan from Russia. If
Moscow has forgotten its horrifying war to suppress the Chechens,
we have not.

We know some in the Kremlin don’t care if ties with the West are
broken. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, the dark hand behind Russia’s
aggression, blustered this week that Russia would be better off if
it didn’t join the World Trade Organization.

While many Russians are cheering him now, we doubt that they will
be eager to return to the grim days of Soviet isolation. For all its
oil wealth, Russia is still a poorly developed, corrupt and fragile
state. It is not in its long-term economic and security interest to
divorce from the international mainstream.

The Bush administration deserves considerable blame for letting this
crisis get so far out of hand. Since the invasion, it has deftly
bolstered Georgia, using military transports to deliver humanitarian
aid. It gets mixed marks for its response to Russia. The White House
eagerly used the crisis to seal a missile defense deal with Poland —
adding to Mr. Putin’s list of resentments. It also, more sensibly,
suspended military cooperation and a civilian nuclear deal worth
billions to Moscow, but left the door open for reviving both.

We do not know what Mr. Cheney will say when he visits Georgia,
Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Italy next week. The last thing the world
needs now is him inciting more resentments and anxieties. Georgia’s
president certainly seems to have learned nothing from the last
few weeks, telling The Times that he would continue his campaign to
reassert Georgian control over South Ossetia and Abkhazia. He seemed
to think that Washington would back him up.

A blustering visit from Mr. Cheney would also make it far easier for
the Europeans to avoid doing what they need to do: send their own
clear message to Moscow that there will be no business as usual. That
does not mean completely isolating Russia. But when the Europeans meet
next week, they should agree to put on hold a trade and security deal
with Moscow so long as it continues to occupy Georgia and threaten
its neighbors.

Ties between Russia and the West are now the worst in a generation. It
will take toughness and subtlety to ensure they do not lock into a
permanent confrontation — not more bluster from anyone.