PUBLIC SUPPORT SHRINKS FOR OPPOSITION

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Sept 4 2008

Public support for opposition parties in Turkey has considerably
decreased, in contrast to a sharp increase in support for the ruling
Justice and Development Party (AK Party), a new opinion poll has found.

The Social and Political Situation in Turkey survey, conducted by
the Ankara-based MetroPOLL Strategic & Social Research Center from
Aug. 29-31, polled 1,251 people in several Turkish cities to find
their views on the current political situation in the country — which
recently heaved a sigh of relief following the rejection of a closure
case against the governing AK Party — and the popularity of President
Abdullah Gul, who recently completed his first year in office.

According to the survey, a clear majority of Turkish society supports
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party, while the opposition
parties, namely the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist
Movement Party (MHP), continue to suffer from declining popularity
with the public.

Asked who they would vote for if there was an election today, 50.9
percent of respondents said they would vote for the AK Party. The
figure demonstrated the ruling party’s considerable increase in
popularity in less than a month, as around 42 percent of those
polled had said in early August they would vote for the AK Party
if parliamentary elections were to be held the day of the poll. The
survey revealed the CHP and the MHP would remain below the election
threshold should general elections be held on the poll date. Only 9.5
percent of respondents said they would vote for the CHP; 6.6 percent
said they would favor the MHP (6.6) and 2.6 percent said they would
vote for the Democratic Society Party (DTP). However 13.9 percent of
those polled had said in the previous survey that they would vote for
the CHP and 8.4 percent for the MHP. Of the remaining respondents,
11.3 percent said they were undecided, while 7.0 percent said they
would simply vote a blank ballot; 2.0 said they would not go to the
ballot box at all, while 5.3 percent said they had no opinion.

Another major topic of the survey was the president’s popularity among
the people. In response to a question on whether Gul had succeeded
in being everyone’s president during his first year in office, 55.7
percent of those polled said yes, whereas 19.7 percent said no.

The remaining either said they had no idea or that Gul reached his
goal partially. Asked which president — Gul, or former President
Ahmet Necdet Sezer — they trusted, 56.4 percent of the respondents
said they trusted Gul and 21.7 percent said they trusted Sezer.

Participants were also surveyed about concerns over secularism and the
regime in Turkey. In response to a question over whether they shared
the concerns for secularism and the regime raised during the process of
Gul’s election as president, 52 percent responded negatively and 26.6
percent positively. When asked whether Gul’s behavior and decisions
during his first year in office endangered secularism in Turkey,
78.4 percent said no and 17.7 percent said yes.

Respondents were also asked about their view regarding the fact that
Gul’s wife, Hayrunnisa, wears the Islamic headscarf. In response
to a question on whether they perceived her headscarf as a problem,
an overwhelming majority of those polled — 85.8 percent — said no,
with 13.7 percent responding positively.

When asked whether Gul had acted with impartiality during his first
year in office, 60.4 percent responded that he was completely impartial
while 34.4 said he had displayed partisanship. Over 76 percent of
respondents said Gul was sensitive toward society’s social problems,
while around 20 percent said he was insensitive. In response to a
question over whether they were satisfied with Gul’s performance in
the presidency so far, 77.9 percent of those surveyed said yes and
20.8 percent said no.

Those polled were also asked for theirs opinion regarding Gul’s recent
appointments of university rectors. Asked whether they were satisfied
with Gul’s choices, 62.5 percent of respondents said they found them
to be positive, and 25.5 percent said they found them negative.

Gul appointed new rectors for 21 Turkish universities on Aug. 5. The
appointments drew the ire of some circles, who leveled harsh criticism
at Gul, claiming he nominated rectors with no experience in the field
but who were known for their closeness to the AK Party. A number of
professors from various universities even resigned from their posts
in protest, saying they were dissatisfied with the rector appointments
at their respective universities.

When asked if they approved of CHP officials’ refusal to attend any
official or private meetings with Gul held at the Cankaya presidential
palace, an overwhelming majority of respondents said they believed
the CHP officials were pursuing a wrong strategy, and only 12.7 said
they supported the CHP’s stance in that regard.

Another question directed at respondents was about Gul’s pardoning of
former Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan. In response to a question
over whether Gul was right to use his presidential pardon to lift
Erbakan’s sentence, 54.6 percent said he was right in doing so;
33.7 percent said he was wrong, and 11.8 percent said they had no idea.

To justify his pardon, Gul cited a report prepared by the
forensic medicine administration showing that Erbakan’s health was
deteriorating. Erbakan, the former leader of the now-defunct Welfare
Party (RP), was sentenced to two years and four months behind bars in
a lawsuit known as the "lost trillion" case, but was able to postpone
serving his sentence by submitting medical reports to the court. The
lost trillion case concerns the disappearance of more than 1 trillion
Turkish lira in Treasury grants to the RP.

Asked whether Gul should go to Yerevan to attend a soccer match between
the Turkish and Armenian national teams upon an invitation from his
Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sarksyan, 67.4 percent of those polled said
he should go and 22.9 percent said he should not accept the invitation.

Sarksyan had previously invited Gul to watch the Sept. 6 World Cup
qualifying match between the Turkish and Armenian national teams in
Yerevan, with which Ankara does not have any official relations.

Officials from the CHP and the MHP have been extremely critical
of the prospect of a possible visit to Armenia by Gul. They say
a visit to Yerevan would mean alienating Azerbaijan, which is of
vital importance to Turkey on many fronts. Turkey was among the first
countries to recognize Armenia’s independence, but closed its border
with the latter and severed formal ties with Yerevan after Armenia
occupied Nagorno-Karabakh.

A considerable majority of poll respondents also said Gul was honest
and trustworthy, a strong and decisive leader, a good statesman,
attached importance to the country’s problems and expectations of
the people, represented Turkey with success, was democratic and
pro-freedom and had the characteristics of a leader.

Support for EU membership on the rise

The survey also has found a clear majority of Turkish society supports
Turkey’s bid to join the European Union. Public support for Turkish
EU membership has shown a considerable increase since the survey
conducted in August.

In response to a question on whether they would vote for or against
Turkey’s EU membership if there were a referendum today, 69.1 percent
said they would vote "yes," while 23.7 percent said they would vote
against it. In the previous survey, 28 percent of those polled were
against EU membership while 66.2 percent supported it.

When asked what they thought about political party closures in Turkey,
40.9 percent of those polled said political parties should only be shut
down if they resort to violence or call for violence in the country;
37.4 percent said parties should not be disbanded under any condition,
and 16.9 percent said existing legal provisions about political party
closures in Turkey should remain untouched.

In response to a question over whether the pro-Kurdish Democratic
Society Party (DTP) should be shut down, 57.6 percent said it should
remain open; 31.2 percent said it should be closed, and 11.3 percent
said they had no idea.

A closure case was filed against the DTP last year by a state
prosecutor on the grounds that it had become a focal point for
separatist activities.

Another question directed at respondents was about the government’s
plan to launch Kurdish broadcasts through the state-owned Turkish Radio
and Television Corporation (TRT). Asked what they thought of the plan,
43.7 percent said: "I see the plan positively. Having a Kurdish TV
station will improve Turkish democracy." But 51.8 percent said:
"I see it negatively. Having a Kurdish TV station will increase
separatist activities."

In response to a question over whom the respondents admired most
among living statesmen and politicians, 33.3 percent said they admire
Prime Minister Erdogan, followed by President Gul (14.7) and former
President Sezer (5.1).

Asked which of the existing political party leaders they trusted most,
51.9 percent of the respondents said they trusted Erdogan the most,
followed by CHP leader Deniz Baykal (4.2) and MHP leader Devlet Bahceli
(4.2).

The telephone poll was conducted Aug. 29-31 among a random national
sampling of 1,251 adults residing in cities, towns and villages. The
margin of error for the full poll is 2.8 percentage points, at a 95
percent confidence level.