CRISIS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS: TURKEY’S BIG MOMENT?

EurActiv
gement/crisis-south-caucasus-turkey-big-moment/art icle-175048
Sept 3 2008
Belgium

The Georgia-Russia crisis offers Turkey "a unique chance to bolster its
regional clout, check Russian and Iranian influence and help secure the
flow of Western-bound oil and natural gas from former Soviet Central
Asia and Azerbaijan," writes Amberin Zaman in an August analysis for
the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

To this end, the ‘Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform’ proposed
by Turkey in response to the post-war climate is "a step in the right
direction," according to The Economist’s Turkey correspondent.

But "one glaring hitch" is that the country does not have formal
ties with Armenia, fears Zaman, while some have described the plan
as "an empty gesture" which is "vague and lacking in substance"
and designed to allow Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan "to burnish
his credentials as a statesman and hog the international stage".

Nevertheless, the author argues that the initiative could prove useful
for improving Turkey-Armenia relations, which is "clearly in Turkey’s
interests" despite "formidable diplomatic obstacles".

Zaman believes the Georgian conflict has "starkly illuminated" the
need for all the region’s players "to rethink the status quo". For
example, re-opening its railway to Armenia would help Turkey avert
"a looming [humanitarian] crisis" in that country and allow aid to
reach Georgia, she argues.

Ethnic and religious ties mean that Turkey’s foreign policy has long
favoured Azerbaijan over Armenia, explains the author. Nevertheless,
she claims there is "growing recognition in official circles that
isolating Armenia is hurting Turkey without necessarily helping
Azerbaijan".

She asserts that "Turkish and Armenian diplomats have been holding
secret talks" that "could lay the ground for re-establishing diplomatic
ties" between the two countries, but warns that Turkey will require
Armenia to stop backing its diaspora’s campaign for international
genocide recognition and declare "that it has no territorial claims"
on Turkish soil if this is to happen.

Ultimately, the views of Turkish army will have a decisive impact
on the chances of any rapprochement with Armenia, concludes Zaman,
who interprets their current silence as a good sign.

The German Marshall Fund of the United States: Crisis in the South
Caucasus: Turkey’s Big Moment? (25 August 2008)
From: Baghdasarian