TDN: GUL PREPARING TO GO TO YEREVAN WITH HOPES OF BREAKTHROUGH IN FROZEN RELATIONS WITH ARMENIA

PanARMENIAN.Net
03.09.2008 19:21 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Turkish President Abdullah Gul is preparing to go
to Yerevan with hopes of a breakthrough in frozen relations with
Armenia. The two countries have no official diplomatic ties, and
whether the visit will open the way to a normalization of relations,
depends on how the Turkish President is received in Yerevan, Barcin
Yinanc writes in her article in the Turkish Daily News.

"Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s invitation to watch the football
game on Saturday was a gesture of good-will, rather than part of
a careful strategy, in the eyes of Turkish officials. However,
making a cost-benefit analysis of whether to go or not, is based on
strategic interests rather than good-will alone, as far as Ankara is
concerned. "Saying no would mean that Turkey is closed to dialogue. It
would create the image that it cannot even tolerate an initiative
based on a humanitarian framework like football," said a high-level
Turkish official. The Turkish government also believes that Armenia
wants to improve its relations with Turkey and seeks progress in
secret direct-talks, initiated after Sargsyan’s election as president
last April.

The recent tension in the Caucasus is an additional reason for
Gul’s likely acceptance of the invitation. The fact that Russia has
increased its area of maneuverability in the region has prompted
Turkey to propose a new regional mechanism; the Caucasian Stability
and Co-operation Pact. With this initiative, Turkey believes that it
assumes a role on an equal standing with Russia, which has become more
and more assertive in the region. The absence of dialogue with Armenia
would have dealt a serious blow to the credibility and efficiency of
the initiative.

But more importantly, the visit, if it takes place, might bring
a significant change in Turkey’s policy of isolating Armenia. The
Turkish decision-makers seem to have come to the conclusion that
isolating Armenia through exclusion from multi-regional co-operation
schemes, like the energy corridors, has pushed Armenia into the hands
of the Russians. In the recent course of events Turkey is keen to
avoid polarization, with Russia and Armenia on one side, Turkey,
Azerbaijan and Georgia on the other.

The talks between the two presidents might change the course of
relations between the two countries. If Gul goes to Yerevan, no
doubt he will not just talk about the performance of the players
during the game. Certainly he will first talk about Turkey’s regional
initiative. Next on the agenda will be the future of direct talks. The
two might then also talk about the issue of Nargorno Karabakh

"The visit to Yerevan should not be perceived as a change in our
policy towards Nagorno Karabakh or Azerbaijan," said a Turkish
official. Although Azerbaijan is not happy about the visit, it has
nevertheless never told the Turkish side not to go, according to the
same official," the article says.