ARMENIA AND THE NEW TURKISH PROPOSAL
Richard Giragosyan
"Noravank" Foundation
04 September 2008
As the conflict in Georgia over the past two weeks has so demonstrably
confirmed, there is a glaring need for stability in the South Caucasus
region. As part of a broader Turkish initiative to assert geopolitical
influence, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has recently
launched a new bid for bolstering stability and security in the region.
Hailed as the "Platform for Stability and Cooperation in the Caucasus,"
this new Turkish initiative seeks to forge a new cooperative attempt
at conflict prevention, multilateral security and regional stability.
Heralding this new initiative, the Turkish prime minister arrived in
Baku on August 20 to meet with President Ilham Aliyev and to more
clearly define the proposal’s goal for securing the now vulnerable
energy export routes running from the Caspian basin to Europe.
The Energy imperative While one of the most pressing needs is to
rapidly resume the flow of oil exports through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan,
or BTC, pipeline, closed since August 6 after an explosion damaged the
Turkish portion of the pipeline and has not been reopened since the
subsequent conflict in Georgia raised fresh security concerns. Although
preliminary testing of the Turkish section of the pipeline began on
August 18, serious concerns linger, especially as the BTC’s back-up
route, the 90 ,000-barrels-per-day-capacity Baku-Supsa pipeline,
has also been shut down after a key railway bridge was destroyed
in Georgia.
Erdogan’s Azerbaijan visit comes in the wake of earlier meetings in
both Moscow and Tbilisi last week, where he also pressed for support
of the new initiative. Most importantly, it is the imperative of
stability for energy that is the key to the initiative, as the recent
outbreak of hostilities in Georgia has raised new concerns over the
viability of not only the BTC and Baku-Supsa pipelines, but also
the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum natural-gas pipeline and the U.S.-EU backed
Nabucco gas pipeline project, which proposes bringing an additional 31
billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe once operational by 2020.
Mutually positive messages Although Azerbaijan and Georgia have obvious
vested interests in the Turkish proposal driven by their shared energy
ties, the exclusion of Armenia from the regional energy infrastructure
will only exacerbate the challenge of convincing Armenia of the need
to accept and support the initiative.
Although this challenge seems to be recognized by Ankara, as seen
by Prime Minister Erdogan’s recent statement promising, "We will
discuss the project with Armenia to construct a cooperation region
with five countries," made at the Turkey-Africa summit in Istanbul,
Armenia seems by no means ready to follow Ankara’s lead without any
serious improvement in the two countries’ non-exis tent relations
and closed borders.
Yet there have been some recent signs of optimism from both sides,
demonstrated by both Turkey’s relaxation of its air space quota for
Armenia in order to ease access for humanitarian aid flows into Georgia
via Armenia, and President Abdullah Gul’s August 16 reconciliatory
message to Armenia.
That statement noted that Turkey is "no enemy" and pointed out that the
recent conflict between Georgia and Russia affirms the need for "early
measures to resolve frozen problems in the region and … prevent
instability in the future." The Turkish president went on to state,
"This is our understanding on all problems. We are no enemy to anyone
in the region," before reiterating the Turkish proposal to set up a
regional forum for stability in the Caucasus.
In addition, after a round of secret talks in Switzerland, there is
ample room and even greater necessity for a historic breakthrough in
relations between Turkey and Armenia.
If Gul rejects the invitation But Gul’s conciliatory remarks were not
part of an attempt to restore bilateral ties, but were in response
to a question on whether he would accept an invitation by Armenian
President Serge Sarkisian to go to Yerevan in September to attend a
World Cup qualifying match between Turkey and Armenia on September
6. And as he replied that he was still "evaluating the invitation,"
ther e is a danger that Armenian public opinion will be angered and
disappointed by a Turkish rejection of the invitation, which seems
likely at this point.
Such a negative Armenian reaction to a likely Turkish decision not
to come to Yerevan would also set back recent Armenian overtures,
including an Armenian decision to unilaterally suspend its visa regime
with Turkey to facilitate the arrival of Turkish fans for the upcoming
first-ever match between the two countries’ national football teams. An
earlier and far more significant overture came earlier this summer,
when Armenian President Sarkisian signaled his government readiness to
accept, in principle, a Turkish proposal to form a joint historical
commission, which would theoretically also examine the historical
veracity of the alleged Armenian genocide of 1915.
Thus, it seems equally clear that while Ankara is not yet willing
or able to tackle its unresolved bilateral problems with Yerevan at
this time, Armenia will remain unwilling to accept or support this
new Turkish initiative for regional stability. And Armenian public
reaction, both within Armenia and its worldwide diaspora, is certain
to reject any move to sign up to the Turkish regional initiative prior
to the restoration of normal diplomatic relations and the opening of
the closed Armenian-Turkish border.
Other issues of author ARE
ARMENIAN-TURKISH RELATIONS HEADED FOR BREAKTHROUGH — OR BREAKDOWN? 0D
[12.06.2008] "REDEFINING TURKEY’S STRATEGIC ORIENTATION" [08.05.2008]
LOOKING TO 2020: AZERBAIJAN’S MILITARY ASPIRATIONS [05.05.2008]
Armenia: Prime Minister [06.04.2007] Can Armenian-Turkish dialogue
survive writer [23.01.2007] The Armenian Genocide Revisited:New
Perspectives in International Law [07.05.2005]
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
