GUL ACCEPTS INVITATION TO ARMENIA
By Gareth Jenkins

Eurasia Daily Monitor
Sept 4 2008
DC

On September 3 Turkish President Abdullah Gul announced that he had
accepted an invitation from Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian to
attend the soccer match between the two countries in the Armenian
capital of Yerevan on September 6 as part of the qualifying group
stages for the 2008 World Cup. It will be the first time a Turkish
head of state has ever visited Armenia.

The announcement followed weeks of speculation and has proved to be
highly controversial inside Turkey. Opposition parties had called on
Gul to decline the invitation in protest over Armenian support for
the breakaway region of Karabakh in Azerbaijan and the continuing
campaign by the Armenian diaspora for the massacres and deportations
of ethnic Armenians during the final years of the Ottoman Empire to
be recognized as genocide.

Turkey was among the first countries to recognize the Republic of
Armenia following its declaration of independence in 1991. Ironically,
at the time, one of the leading advocates of closer ties between the
two countries was Alparslan Turkes (1917-1997), the founder of the
Turkish ultranationalist Nationalist Action Party (MHP). Relations
soured, however, when Yerevan supported an armed uprising by ethnic
Armenians in Karabakh against the Azerbaijani government in Baku. In
addition to religious and linguistic ties, Ankara has been eager
to maintain a close relationship with Baku in order to fulfill its
ambition of making Turkey an energy hub for exports of oil and natural
gas from the Caspian basin and Central Asia. In 1993 Turkey severed all
diplomatic ties with Armenia and closed their shared land border. There
are now regular flights between Yerevan and Istanbul; but, despite
pressure from both the international community and local business
organizations in eastern Turkey, the land border remains closed.

In recent months, however, there have been signs of a possible
rapprochement. On July 18 Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan
confirmed rumors in the Turkish media that diplomats from Turkey and
Armenia had met in Switzerland for several days of informal talks
about ways of improving ties (see EDM, July 25). Hopes were further
raised by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s proposal
of a "Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform," following the
outbreak of fighting between Russia and Georgia in South Ossetia in
early August. Erdogan’s plan envisages creating a regional framework
that would enable the countries of the Caucasus to resolve their
differences without recourse to violence.

Erdogan’s proposal appears to have been motivated by the combination
of a genuine desire to stop the bloodshed in South Ossetia and his
ambition for Turkey to prove itself as a regional superpower, which
includes being recognized as a major player in the Caucasus. Erdogan
appears to have failed to understand that Russia’s policies toward
both South Ossetia and Abkhazia were motivated by a desire not to
avoid conflict but simply to assert its preeminence in its "near
abroad." Nevertheless, Turkey could hardly propose dialogue and closer
regional cooperation and then reject Sarkisian’s invitation to Gul
to attend a soccer match.

In a statement posted on its website in the ponderous opacity of
formal Turkish, the office of the Turkish presidency acknowledged
that the visit would be concerned with more than the game itself.

"The match offers important opportunities in addition to being
a sporting event," noted the statement. "It is believed that this
opportunity that has arisen should be evaluated in the best possible
manner by all sides, particularly at a time when the peoples of the
Caucasus are experiencing worrying developments. It is thought that
the visit that will be made in relation to this match can contribute
to the development of a new friendship in the region. It is with
this understanding that the president has accepted the invitation"
(website of the Turkish presidency, )

What the statement goes on to describe as "the opportunity provided
by this visit for the two peoples to understand each other better"
() is likely to be fairly fleeting. According to
reports in the Turkish media, Gul will spend only five to six hours in
Armenia. Accompanied by Babacan, he will fly from Ankara to Yerevan
on the Airbus 319 known as Ana, which was bought by Erdogan for his
official use, and which, as the Turkish media have proudly noted,
has a large Turkish flag painted on its tail (Hurriyet, Milliyet,
September 4). Gul will arrive in Yerevan about two hours before the
match and have an approximately one hour meeting with Sarkisian at
the Armenian presidential palace. The two will then travel to the
stadium to watch the match together. As soon as the match is over,
Gul will be driven to the airport and fly straight back to Turkey
(Milliyet, Radikal, Hurriyet, September 4).

Nobody seriously expects the visit to result in any breakthrough
in the longstanding disputes between Turkey and Armenia. Opponents
of the visit have criticized Gul for making what they regard as a
meaningless gesture and warned that he is likely to face vociferous
protests from Armenian ultranationalists in the stadium.

"Will Armenia completely abandon the genocide claims of the
diaspora? Will they withdraw from the Azerbaijani territory they
have occupied?" asked columnist Altemur Kilic in the Turkish
ultranationalist daily Yeni Cag (Yeni Cag, September 4).

Fatih Terim, the coach of the Turkish national soccer team, has
expressed concern that all the talk of the symbolic value of Gul’s
visit is distracting attention from the game itself. It is a match
that Turkey should and must win in order to boost its chances of
qualification for the finals.

"This is just a game of soccer for us, not a war," said Terim. "We
can’t carry the burden of history on our shoulders" (Milliyet,
Hurriyet, Zaman, NTV, September 4).

But, on Saturday evening, when the populations of Turkey and Armenia
tune in to watch the game on television, undoubtedly most will not
only be remembering history but wondering whether the time has now
come for relations between the countries to have a future.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress