SOCCER DIPLOMACY LIFTS HOPES OF TURKEY-ARMENIA THAW
By Hasmik Lazarian and Paul de Bendern

Reuters
Friday September 5 2008

YEREVAN/ANKARA, Sept 5 (Reuters) – A soccer match in Yerevan’s Hrazdan
stadium on Saturday could herald a fresh start in relations between
Armenians and Turks that have been marred by hostility for nearly
100 years.

President Abdullah Gul will become the first Turkish leader ever
to set foot in neighbouring Armenia when, at the invitation of his
Armenian counterpart, he flies to Yerevan to watch his national side
play Armenia in a World Cup qualifying match.

The visit has huge symbolic importance for two countries which have
no diplomatic ties and whose relationship is haunted by the killings
of hundreds of thousands of Armenians in Ottoman Turkey during World
War One.

If they can move beyond the symbolism to re-establish normal relations,
that could have huge significance for Turkey’s role as a regional
power, for energy flows from the Caspian Sea and for Western influence
in a South Caucasus region where Russia flexed its muscles last month
by sending troops into Georgia.

"Football diplomacy will become a new term in the international
community’s lexicon," if after Saturday’s match there is a real
improvement in relations, former Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan
Oskanian told Reuters.

Turkey has never opened an embassy in Armenia and in 1993 Ankara
closed their land border in a show of solidarity with Azerbaijan,
a Turkic-speaking ally which was fighting Armenian-backed separatists
over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Armenia, supported by many Western historians, says up to 1.5 million
of its people were killed in a genocide. Turkey denies there was
genocide and says the deaths were the result of inter-ethnic conflict
that also killed many Muslim Turks.

ENERGY CORRIDOR But Russia’s decision last month to send its forces
into Georgia, an ex-Soviet state which borders both Armenia and
Turkey, has convinced many that it is time for Ankara and Yerevan to
put their differences aside.

Western-backed pipelines shipping oil and gas from the Caspian Sea
to Turkey’s Mediterranean coast bypass Armenia and bend north instead
to go through Georgia.

With that route looking vulnerable after the Russian intervention,
Armenia could be an attractive alternative route.

Russia’s actions — which have unsettled its neighbours and been widely
condemned by the West — have also encouraged NATO member Turkey to
seek a bigger role as a regional power broker, a task hampered by
its lack of ties with Armenia.

"The crisis in Georgia has underlined the importance of good
neighbourly relations in the region, including Turkish-Armenian
relations," said Olli Rehn, the European Union’s enlargement
commissioner.

Not everyone welcomes Gul’s visit. Turkey’s main opposition Republican
Party urged the Turkish president not to go.

In Yerevan, the nationalist Dashnaktsutyun party said it activists will
be at the airport where Gul is to arrive and the football stadium to
stage protests demanding Turkey recognise the World War One killings
as genocide.

Extra security will be laid on at the stadium for Gul and the
150-strong Turkish delegation.

FIRST STEPS Observers in both countries hope substantial negotiations
will follow on from Gul’s visit, which will include talks and a dinner
hosted by Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan.

For Yerevan, a first step would be for Turkey to re-open the rail link
with Armenia. For Ankara, it would be for Armenia to stop lobbying
foreign parliaments to recognise the World War One killings as
genocide, and for some movement on the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.

"I suppose for Turkey it wants to strengthen its position in the
region and immediately wants to avoid a situation next year when the
U.S. Congress would most likely pass a resolution recognizing the
killings as genocide," said William Hale, an author and expert on
Turkish politics.

The key though is what happens after the final whistle blows on
Saturday.

"This is a feel-good all round," said Oskanian, who now heads the
Civilitas Foundation for democracy and development issues.

"The challenge is to make it a meaningful win-win and it can be that
only if there’s a continuation to this initial demonstrative period,"
he said.

"If this doesn’t happen … then Turkey will have demonstrated that
all this was just a show. And that means both Armenia and the region
will be the losers."

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress