Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Sept 6 2008

Gül’s visit may increase trade with Armenia fivefold

Extending an olive branch to Turkey’s last enemy by accepting an
invitation to attend a World Cup qualifying match between the national
teams in the Armenian capital of Yerevan, President Abdullah
Gül’s historic visit will have tremendous economic
consequences, increasing the total trade volume with Armenia sharply
in a very short time, business circles predict.

The positive atmosphere created out of the mutual steps of each
president towards the other will most likely bring about an
improvement in relations, which may even lead to the opening of the
border gate in Kars. The gate was closed in 1993 as a reaction to
Armenia’s attack on Azerbaijan, an ally of Turkey.

Kaan Soyak, the co-president of the Turkish-Armenian Business
Development Council, believes Armenian and Turkish traders, who are
now forced to do business via third countries due to the lack of a
direct connection, will find a chance to trade directly after the gate
is opened. This will increase the trade volume from $100 million to
$500 million in a few months’ time, he said predicting that the
relations will see a tremendous increase soon after talks start.

The two countries are currently trading with each other through
Georgia and Iran, primarily in textiles, cleaning materials, food,
home appliances and construction materials. Armenians do business with
companies in eastern and southeastern Anatolia. Soyak says the
extended routes and costlier transportation have led to a 30 percent
loss in revenues. Once the Kars border gate is opened, the economies
of some eastern Anatolian cities such as Kars, Ardahan, Erzurum and
Erzincan will see an increase in their briskness, he told Today’s
Zaman yesterday.

`If everything goes well, I believe relations will return to normal
and the gate will be opened,’ Soyak said. This will also render Turkey
more influential in the Caucasus, which has gained a key role due to
its natural resources in energy. Turkey is currently involved in
several large projects, including the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil
pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum natural gas pipeline, the Nabucco
pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, all of which exclude
Armenia and push it into further poverty while boosting the prosperity
in the nations involved. Therefore, if the enmity is removed and
relations are re-established, the Armenian side will benefit
significantly from this, he said.

A railway between the two nations with a capacity of carrying 10
million tons of goods a year has been idle for 15 years since
relations were broken. The normalization of relations will make this
route active once again, Soyak said, and added that this will be a
very valuable route for trade not only with Armenia but also the wider
region of Central Asia.

Armenians produce a significant amount of electricity at lower prices
than produced in energy-thirsty Turkey, Soyak said. The country also
has large natural gas storage facilities and Turkey may benefit by
leasing them, he noted. Armenia was one of Russia’s most productive
textile bases during the Soviet era, he recalled and stated that
cooperation in the textile business would definitely make both sides
better off. `This country has a qualified labor force and a marketing
advantage, while Turks have the machinery and fabrics. If they act
together, they can achieve much in this business,’ he claimed.

Soyak says Armenians are currently using low-quality products largely
coming from Iran and really hoping to get high quality Turkish goods
at low prices. Additionally, opening the border gate will also boost
tourism between the two countries, he added. He estimates that eastern
Anatolia will enjoy at least $600 million in tourism revenues a year
from visitors coming from Armenia alone.

06 September 2008, Saturday
ERCAN BAYSAL ANKARA

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress