Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
Sept 5 2008
ARMENIA, TURKEY INCH TOWARD RAPPROCHEMENT
By Emil Danielyan
Friday, September 5, 2008
Months of confidential diplomatic contacts and exchanges of unusually
cordial statements have left Armenia and Turkey on the verge of an
historic rapprochement that would have far-reaching ramifications for
regional security. This weekend President Abdullah Gul will become the
first leader of modern-day Turkey to set foot in Armenia, in what
could be a prelude to the normalization of extremely strained
relations between the two neighboring states.
Gul was officially invited by his Armenian counterpart, Serzh
Sarkisian, last June to visit Yerevan to watch the first-ever match
between Armenia’s and Turkey’s national soccer teams on September
6. The invitation underlined Sarkisian’s positive response to a
Turkish offer of `dialogue’ that came just days after he took over as
Armenia’s new president in early April. Gul was one of the first
foreign leaders to congratulate Sarkisian on his hotly disputed
victory in the February 19 presidential election. Turkey’s Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ali Babacan sent
similar congratulatory messages to their newly appointed Armenian
counterparts.
According to the Armenian government, Erdogan spoke of unspecified
`certain steps’ that could be taken to improve Turkish-Armenian
relations. Senior diplomats from the two countries met secretly in
Switzerland in early July to discuss those steps. Turkish officials
leaked news of the talks to the domestic media following Sarkisian’s
April 9 op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, in which he made a case for
a `fresh start’ in bilateral ties. The Armenian president has since
repeatedly expressed hope that Gul will make an historic trip to
Yerevan. His government decided on August 14 to waive Armenia’s visa
regime with Turkey from September 1 to 6 to make it easier for Turkish
soccer fans to flock to the Armenian capital for the World Cup
qualifying match.
For its part, Armenia’s main opposition alliance led by former
President Levon Ter-Petrosian postponed a planned September 5 rally to
enable the national police to concentrate on ensuring security in and
around Yerevan’s Hrazdan stadium (Haykakan Zhamanak, August 30). In
contrast, Sarkisian’s overtures to Ankara were openly criticized by
his predecessor Robert Kocharian and the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation (ARF, or the Dashnak Party), a nationalist party
represented in Armenia’s governing coalition. ARF leaders reaffirmed
last week they plan to stage street protests during Gul’s arrival in
Yerevan.
Predictably, the United States, which has long been pushing for
Turkish-Armenian dialogue, welcomed Sarkisian’s invitation, with
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza saying that Gul’s
arrival in the Armenian capital could be a `real ground-breaking
moment’ (RFE/RL Armenia Report, July 18). Citing diplomatic sources in
Ankara, the Turkish newspaper Vatan reported on August 30 that Gul had
decided to accept the invitation. The report came as a team of Turkish
security officials was due in Yerevan to discuss with their Armenian
colleagues the tight security measures that would be taken in the
event of the trip.
Gul reportedly insisted on August 30 that he had still not decided
whether to visit Armenia. Erdogan, however, implied the same day that
the visit would take place and that the Turkish leader would be
accompanied by Babacan (Hurriyet, September 1). The Turkish Foreign
Minister told journalists in Istanbul on August 31 that a Turkish
government delegation would fly to Yerevan this week to discuss
preparations for Gul’s trip. He said it would also discuss with
Armenian officials the idea, which was recently floated by Erdogan, of
forming an alliance of the three South Caucasus states as well as
Turkey and Russia. Ankara is ready to include Armenia in the proposed
Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform despite having no
diplomatic relations with Yerevan.
Successive Turkish governments have made the establishment of
diplomatic relations and the reopening of the Turkish-Armenian border,
which Ankara closed in 1993, conditional on a resolution of the
Karabakh conflict acceptable to Azerbaijan. They have also demanded a
halt to the decades-long Armenian campaign for international
recognition of the 1915-1918 mass killings and deportations of
Armenians in the Ottoman Empire as genocide. Both Turkish
preconditions have been and will be non-starters for the authorities
in Yerevan, who want an unconditional normalization of bilateral
relations, a position essentially backed by the United States and the
European Union.
Whether the current Turkish leadership is ready to drop these
preconditions remains unclear. Sarkisian held out hope for a policy
change in Ankara in an interview with the Turkish daily Radikal on
August 28. The two governments, he said, `have reached the
decision-making phase’ in their dialogue. `Those will not be easy
decisions,’ he said without elaboration. `Those decisions will not be
approved by the entire public in Armenia and Turkey; but I am sure the
majority of the public will support positive decisions.’
According to Turkish Daily News, Turkish policy toward Armenia was the
subject of a heated discussion during a July meeting in Ankara of
Turkey’s ambassadors abroad. The paper wrote on July 25 that some of
them had called for a rapid normalization of Turkish-Armenian
relations, complaining that they were finding it increasingly
difficult to justify the preconditions on the international stage and
to keep more foreign nations from recognizing the genocide of the
Armenians. But other, more hawkish diplomats urged the Erdogan
government to stay the course and continue to isolate Armenia.
`Turkish policy on Armenia and Armenian claims of genocide will depend
on which of the groups in the [Turkish foreign] ministry will be
successful in convincing the government,’ concluded Turkish Daily
News. `The ruling Justice and Development Party would rather opt for
the group in favor of reconciliation.’