Trend News Agency, Azerbaijan
Sept 5 2008
Armenia: Does Game of Light Stand for Ankara?
05.09.08 16:55
Vagif Sharifov – Trend Capital , director
Under the conditions of the close economic partnership of Turkey and
Azerbaijan, official Ankara will lose greater than it will acquire
from re-establishment of railway communication and actually opening
the land border with Yerevan, which has been closed for already 15
years. The media actively comments on the news onhe forthcoming visit
of the President of Turkey, Abdullah Gul, to Armenia and the parallel
statements of official Yerevan regarding the plans of renewal of the
railway Kars (Turkey) – Gumri (Armenia).
Turkey, being the importer of fuel from many sources, obtains transit
tariff from the transportation of Azerbaijani oil via
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, buys gas via Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum
pipeline, builds railway Baku-Tbilisi-Kars together with
Azerbaijan. The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan invests in the
creation of large petrochemical complex in Turkey. Ankara lays large
hopes also for Kazakhstan oil, which will pass by transit through the
territory of Azerbaijan, and gas pipe Nabucco, of which beginning will
be established in Turkey, will be filled up with the Azerbaijan gas
and fuel from central Asia, which will pass through Baku.
Because of its aggressive policy with regards to Nagorno-Karabakh,
which is integral part of Azerbaijan, Armenia was found in the total
dependence on three countries: Iran, Russia and Georgia, which mainly
acted as transit country for delivery of Russian goods to Yerevan. The
present desire of Armenia to re-establish activity of the route
Kars-Gumri is completely explainable: Georgian-South Ossetian
conflict, which burnt in August, made Armenia more dependent on the
import, but now already only on one source – Iran. The recent rupture
of diplomatic relations between Georgia and Russia actually means that
Russian goods can not arrive in Yerevan through Tbilisi, but there is
no other economically attractive route.
This means that according to elementary market laws, the Iranian goods
will grow in price for Armenia, whose economic position even will more
deteriorate in light of the last events in Caucasus. Due o the
situation created in Caucasus, the question of diversifying the import
of energy resources critically stands for Armenia, and the statements
of official Yerevan regarding the plans of renewal of railway
communication with the partner country for Azerbaijan ` Turkey `
proceed from this. Official Ankara hardly will go to such in the
essence political step.
Opening roads – indicating relaxation of the 15-year position of
official Ankara, will allow Turkey to trade only with Armenia because
Turkish goods can not fall to the market of Russia through Georgia
because of the recent conflict and break of diplomatic
relations. Moreover, Turkey does not need to trade with Iran or
Georgia through Armenia because Turkey has state borders with these
countries and economic operations have been fixed long ago.
According to the data provided by US Energy Information Administration
(EIA), the fuel consumption in Armenia from 1992 to 2007 averaged
34,000 barrels per day (1.7mln tons per year). According to data by
EIA, Armenia does not have own oil refinery, own production of
hydrocarbons and main oil pipelines. Armenia repeatedly declared its
desire to construct oil refinery in its territory, with a capacity of
7mln tons per year, which is estimated at $2bln. However, no one will
buy gasoline from this refinery because it will prove to be very
unattractive because of the high prime cost of oil refining. Imported
Kazakhstan or Turkmen oil (by transit via the territory of Iran) for
the refinery in Armenia will cost very expensive, and export and
distribution of oil products are complicated by the absence of main
oil product pipelines and, as a consequence of this, by high transport
expenditures. Yerevan will not be able to buy Iranian oil because
Teheran itself buys raw material from Russia, Turkmenistan and
Kazakhstan for its oil refineries, located on the north of the
country,.
Azerbaijan has solid geo-political position in South Caucasus,
possessing convenient and infrastructurally fixed transit territory
for exporting both its hydrocarbons and from central Asia to
Europe. Due to the present high prices for oil and gas, Turkey obtains
significant benefits from the co-operation with Azerbaijan, whose raw
material goes to the Port of Ceyhan.
And Kazakhstan will supply part of its own oil from Kashagan Field via
Baku- Tbilisi-Ceyhan. Kazakhstan possesses oil terminal in the Port of
Batumi in the Black sea in Georgia, loads for which are supplied
through the territory of Azerbaijan. Economic factor and solid fixed
partner agreements with Azerbaijan, in all likelihood, must be more
accepted by Turkey against the background of the possibility of
opening borders with Armenia.
how=news&newsid=1287259&lang=EN