From: "Katia M. Peltekian" <kpeltekian@yahoo.com>
Subject: BAKU: Turk Pres Visit Unlikely to Entail Soon Opening of Borders

Trend News Agency, Azerbaijan
Sept 5 2008

Turkish President’s Visit to Armenia Unlikely to Entail Soon Opening
of Borders: Experts

05.09.08 11:11

Azerbaijan, Baku, 4 September / Trend News corr. E.Tariverdiyeva,
V.Zhavoronkova, R.Hafizoglu/ Experts believe visit of Turkish
President Abdullah Gul to Armenia is unlikely to entail soon opening
of borders between the two countries.

`It is early to speak about opening of borders, but given slyness of
Armenian politicians, that can take place as time goes by,’
independent Turkish political scientist Mehmet Bekaroglu said.

Turkish President Abdullah Gul will visit Yerevan on 6 September on
the invitation of Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan to watch a
football match between the national teams of the two countries within
the selection stage of World Championship 2010.

There are no diplomatic links between Turkey and Armenia and the
border between the two countries has been closed for recent 15
years. Analysts consider Gul’s visit to Yerevan to be an opportunity
to normalize the relationships between the two neighbour countries,
through opening of borders will not be settled in near future.

For a long period Armenia has been in partial economic blockade due to
closed border with Turley and Azerbaijan. Therefore, now Armenia will
make a compromise to open a part of the borders.

`For Armenia it is important not only to resume diplomatic relations
but also to open borders between the two states,’ Bekaroglu, former MP
of the Turkish Parliament, told Trend News in a telephone conversation
from Istanbul.

Anyway, one issue remains unsolved ` how much is Turkey ready to open
the border?

`A visit is not beginning of negotiations,’ European expert of
Caucasus Svante Cornell said. `That should be taken as nor more than a
gesture,’ co-director of the Stockholm Institute of Security &
Development Policy Svante Cornell said to Trend News in a telephone
conversation from Stockholm. According to him, Turley will not change
its hard political policy towards Armenia and it is not the time to
open Turkey-Armenia border.

That can be the beginning, a rather serious endeavour to solve, at
least partially, the problems between Turkey and Armenia or to
commence negotiations in this connection, Azerbaijani political
scientist Rasim Musabayov said. `I think Gul’s visit to Armenia to
watch football match will not be followed by opening of borders a
month or two later,’ Musabayov said to TrendNews by telephone.

This needs certain level of diplomatic relations. This process will
also help to become part of dialogue and it will be an attempt to
normalize Turkish-Armenian relations. But I do no think it will taken
place any time soon, he said.

According to Turkish political expert Bekaroglu, Turkey has a
principal position on Armenia and Yerevan will make any concessions to
restore relations and such development of events can lead to opening
of borders in future.

Opening of borders will provide Armenia with a chance to revive
economy of the country and Armenia can even give up exaggeration of
`genocide’ for this purpose but only until those it will revive
economy to the necessary level, he said.

The official Ankara have stated repeatedly that the resolution of
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and giving up policy of international
recognition of `genocide’ against Armenians in the Ottoman Empire
during World War I when some nearly 1.5mln people were killed, can
serve as a ground for restoring diplomatic relations with Armenia.

West played a big role in normalizing relations between the two
states, expert said.

The crisis around South Ossetia necessitates the opening of borders
between Turkey and Armenia for the barter among region states, Joseph
Pennington, charge d’affaires of US in Armenia said to media in
Yerevan. No other state, but only US is interested in opening of
borders and normalizing relations between Armenia and Turkey, Caucasus
junction portal reported.

Turkey made this move not under its own will, but under US influence
as the war in Abkhazia and South Ossetia seriously affected economy of
Armenia, Cornell said.

`West understands only restoration of relations with Turkey can help
to revive economy in Armenia,’ Cornell said.