September 7, 2008

As powers withdraw, ethnic claims emerge

By ANDREI KOROBKOV, Ph.D.
The recent developments in the Caucasus remind us of the dangers of the
post-Cold War era.
With the collapse of the USSR in 1991, the danger of a nuclear war seemed to
decrease tremendously. Cooperation with Russia started to develop while many
post-Communist states were incorporated into the Western system.
Meanwhile, the destruction of the bipolar system also resulted in the major
powers’ withdrawal from many regions that have lost their strategic
importance. One of the results of this process became the return of the previous ethnic
hatreds and territorial claims. Other nations living within the multiethnic
states started to claim their rights for separate statehood. The dangers of
this new situation were demonstrated during the conflicts in the former
Yugoslavia. Similar conflicts took place in some post-Soviet states, including
Azerbaijan (Karabakh), Georgia (South Ossetia and Abkhazia), Moldova
(Transdnistria), and in Russia’s Chechen Republic. The situation is further complicated
by the growing nationalism of the Russian government, suspicious of Western
policies and assured by huge oil revenues.
Tension came to a head
The culmination of this tension came in August, when Georgian President
Mikhail Saakashvili attempted to regain control over the ethnic enclaves of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia and sent his troops into these regions, protected by
Russian forces. When this resulted in the death of some Russian peacekeepers,
Russian leadership used this opportunity, not only forcing the Georgians out,
but also occupying a large chunk of Georgian territory and then, recognizing
the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The West demanded Russia’s
withdrawal and promised to consider Georgia’s application for NATO membership.
These actions forced Russia to withdraw troops, but its relations with the
West have worsened.
Two positions emerge in regard to Russia’s treatment. One is to introduce
strict sanctions and isolate the country, another to continue the dialogue. The
Russian government has cut military ties with NATO and its individual
members. There is a high volume of anti-Western rhetoric in the government-sponsored
media.
The U.S. has to make it clear to Russian leaders that the use of force,
especially against other states, is unacceptable.
Removing Russia from major organizations or stopping its WTO membership
negotiations could eliminate important leverage for the West. One also should not
forget Russia remains a nuclear power and a supplier of oil, gas and other
resources. No less important is the prospect of Russia’s alliance with China.
Thus, the dialogue needs to continue.
Also effective is the continuous incorporation of the other post-Soviet
states into Western economic and political institutions. A more complicated issue
is that of NATO expansion. On one hand, it encourages aspiring states to
reform and avoid aggressive policies. On the other, the NATO charter says an
attack against any of its members will be considered an attack against all.
Thus, the more unstable are the states joining the organization and the closer it
is coming to the Russian borders, the higher the danger of conflict
escalation.
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From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress