EU/RUSSIA : UNION WANTS TO PREVENT ANOTHER CRISIS WITH MOSCOW

European Report
September 9, 2008

Drawing the first lessons from the Georgian crisis, the EU wants to
strengthen its presence on its oriental border and in the Caucasus
in order to prevent a new Russian offensive. During their informal
Council (Gymnich), on 6 September in Avignon, EU foreign ministers have
expressed the need for Europe to anticipate the next crisis, as Moscow
is increasing its pressure in the region. "The EU must be ready to
prevent another crisis," said Bernard Kouchner, the French minister in
charge of the EU Presidency. Ministers also gave unanimous support to
an international inquiry to determine responsibilities in the Georgian
crisis, as proposed by German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

In Avignon, at least ten ministers have expressed the need for Europe
to be more present in the region in order to avoid the reopening
of frozen conflicts’. They proposed to sharpen Europe’s permanent
diplomatic presence in the region and multiply high level visits there
in order to balance Russia’s influence. The objective is to have a
more proactive strategy to prevent Moscow from imposing its view in
some hotspots, such as Nagorno-Karabakh or Transnistria. "We need a
global approach to the region: we should address all the different
crises together rather than in isolation," said Alexander Stubb, the
foreign minister of Finland in charge of the OSCE Presidency. The
distribution of Russian passports in Crimea or Moscow’s proactive
policy in Moldova concern Europeans.

Against this backdrop, the EU has decided to speed up its efforts to
set up an Oriental partnership’, as proposed by Poland and Sweden last
spring, in response to the French Mediterranean Union plan. Benita
Ferrero-Waldner, the European commissioner for external relations,
will present a first set of proposals during the autumn instead of
spring 2009, as it was originally planned.

The EU will soon appoint a special envoy for Georgia but it is
still reflecting on the profile of this new actor. Some suggest the
appointment of a high profile figure such as former German Foreign
Minister Joschka Fischer, while others would prefer a more diplomatic’
figure that would leave more influence to Javier Solana, the EU’s
diplomatic chief.

The European Commission is also preparing an aid package to support
the reconstruction of Georgia. It will focus on rebuilding houses
of civilians who fled from their home during the conflict, said
Ferrero-Waldner. She said that destruction was less severe than first
thought. In 2008, the Commission’s financial support to Georgia will
amount to E100 million, according to the commissioner. "We are not
going to allow Georgia to be strangled economically," warned David
Miliband, the UK’s foreign secretary.

However, the meeting in Avignon confirmed that sharp differences remain
among member states over the interpretation of the Georgian crisis and
what the EU’s strategy should be towards Russia. Several countries,
led by the Baltic states, called for a tougher line against Moscow,
recalling that Georgian villages "were still burning at the time we
speak". They argued that the opposition to Georgia’s NATO membership,
expressed by France and Germany last spring during the summit of the
Atlantic Alliance in Bucharest, had given a free hand to Moscow in
the region. "Discussions were frank, sometime even harsh," admitted
Kouchner at the end of the Gymnich. But several member states, such
as Italy, Portugal, Greece or Luxembourg, insisted on the need to
keep communication channels open with Moscow. "We must normalise
our relations with Russia as soon as possible," said Luis Amado,
the Portuguese minister.

But ministers were keen on insisting publicly on their unity, bearing
in mind that their differences would further undermine Europe’s
diplomatic influence. "Nobody talked about sanctions against Russia,"
said Jean Asselborn, the foreign minister of Luxembourg. Drawing
lessons from the past, one minister underlined the need to avoid the
repetition of the scenario of the Iraqi crisis in 2003 when Europe
had been totally sidelined because of its internal divisions. "We
have committed ourselves to maintaining European unity," said Kouchner.