WAR UNDER THREAT: WHAT ESCALATION OF TENSION OVER IRAN MAY RESULT IN
by Igor Dmitriyev

WPS Agency
What the Papers Say (Russia)
September 9, 2008 Tuesday
Russia

WAS THE ATTACK AGAINST SOUTH OSSETIA AN ELEMENT OF WASHINGTON’S
DESIGNS FOR IRAN?; Military experts suspect that only Russia’s swift
reaction to the Georgian aggression against South Ossetia prevented
the American strike at Iran in late August.

Some prominent military experts in Russia and abroad suspect that
the Georgian attack against South Ossetia was in fact an element of
the designs for Iran charted by American strategists.

Georgian aggression against Tskhinvali and blistering reaction of
the West to recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Moscow
distracted attention of the international community from the reports
that the United States, Great Britain, and France sent a great deal
of naval assets to the Persian Gulf. Once they all are in place,
the group will include five aircraft-carrying detachments totalling
40 warships. This is the first time after the war in Iraq that any
such armada will be sailing the Persian Gulf.

According to The Middle East Times, the United States dispatched
its USS Theodore Roosevelt, USS Ronald Reagan, and USS Iwo Jima to
meet with the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Peleliu in the Persian
Gulf. The Brits and the French have Ark Royal (aircraft-carrier),
some escorts, and Amethyst (submarine) in the area. In late June,
this armada already ran Operation Brimstone off the US Atlantic coast,
a drill of the naval blockade of Iran.

Iranian nuclear program presents the allies with a perfect excuse to go
to war. Iranian Ambassador to Russia Golamreza Alsani once said that
the nuclear power plant in Busher – the first such object in Iran –
might go on line before the end of 2008. President Mahmud Ahmadinejad
in the meantime said Iran already had 5,000 centrifuges running.

In other words, the Islamic Republic of Iran is making fast progress so
that its objective, uranium enrichment techniques, is nearly within
reach. Official Washington nevertheless claims that it is nuclear
weapons that Tehran is really after.

US President George W. Bush went public to say once that he did
not rule out the possibility of a military strike at Iran. The US
Congress passed the Iran Freedom Support Act, a document that calls
for "bringing the existing regime to account for its threatening
behavior". The New Yorker ran a piece titled "Forthcoming War"
implying that Washington was planning strikes at the nuclear power
plant in Busher but also at nuclear sites in Isfahan, Natanza, and
so on. Located deep below the surface as they are, these sites are
only vulnerable to high-precision missiles or airbombs weighing over
half a ton each.

US Army will be deployed after that, more likely than not to occupy
the so called energy security zone in the oil-rich south of the
country. It will put the United States in control over production
of 60-70% of all Iranian oil. A puppet government will be installed
there in no time at all, one to sign an oil production and export
agreement with the Americans.

The Jerusalem Post and The Daily Telegraph report that AIVD (Dutch
intelligence) recalled is agents from Iran in late August when it
became alerted to the American plans to subject the target country
to a drone strike. It is known that AIVD shares information with
CIA. There is, however, a catch. Where will the strike be delivered
from? In Afghanistan, the United States only controls Kabul itself
and the zone adjacent to the US military base in Bahram. Sending
strategic bombers like B-52s from there to Iran will be risky
(there are Afghani guerrillas wielding portable missile launchers to
consider). Same goes for Pakistan, Turkey, and Iraq. Western part
of Pakistan constitutes the so called Pushtu Tribal Zone where the
Taliban movement calls the tune… Neither can the Americans rely
on the Arab states of Arabia. "It’s certainly different from what it
was like in 2003 when some Arab countries all but blessed the United
States poised to strike at Iraq," Muhammed Said Idris of the Center
for Political and Strategic Studies (Cairo, Egypt) said. "These days,
support of the attack against Iran will be regarded as treachery." A
lot of Arabs are convinced that Iran needs nuclear weapons to serve
as an adequate counterweight to Israel.

All these considerations leave the northern vector of attack against
Iran for the Americans to consider. Washington cannot rely on neutral
Turkmenistan or pro-Russian Armenia. Azerbaijan denied its military
bases to the Americans – fearing negative reaction from its own Shi’ah
population. It leaves Georgia, a country conveniently located on the
Black Sea coast. This is where the main strike will be launched from.

Ruslan Pukhov, Director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and
Techniques, is convinced that "… yes, the Americans desperately
need Georgia and its waters as a bridgehead."

Deputy Chief of the General Staff Colonel General Anatoly Nogovitsyn
admits that "… Russia is upset by activeness of NATO’s naval forces
and their buildup in the Black Sea." Indeed, NATO had 9 ships in the
Black Sea on August 25 (including USS Mount Whitney, 6th US Fleet
flagship) and will have 18 (!) in just a few days. Washington keeps
telling everyone that the ships are ferrying relief aid to Georgia
but nobody is that gullible.

Hence the suspicions that the Georgian attack against South Ossetia
was actually an element of preparations for an operation against
Iran and eventual deployment of an American contingent, say, on the
pretext of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline protection. Military
expert Igor Boschenko even suggested that the events around South
Ossetia were actually a cover for preparations for the American strike
at Iran scheduled for late August. Russia’s swift reaction, however,
threatened to expose the preparations (and the military infrastructure
set up in the process) and the operation was aborted.

Russia stands for a political and diplomatic settlement of the conflict
over the Iranian nuclear program. Activization of the Russian-Iranian
nuclear cooperation may serve as a response to the Western community’s
threats to Russia itself. Quite symptomatic, but Leonid Reznikov of
Atomstrpoieksport (the structure building nuclear power plants abroad)
visited Busher for the first time the other day.

As for Iran, it never misses a chance to tell the international
community that any attack against it will cause Iranian retaliation
with all forces and means available. Shahab-3 strategic missiles with
the range in excess of 1,500 kilometers were tested in this country
not long ago. Shahab-3s will reach as far as NATO bases in Turkey,
Israel, and Pakistan.

>From the standpoint of weapons and military hardware, the Iranian army
is way ahead of any other military in the region. Its Air Force is
expecting new Azarakhsh (Lightning) and Saegheh (Thunder) fighters
in the near future. The Iranian Navy includes a nuclear submarine
now… In short, the American escapade in Iran has every chance to
become a war of attrition at best, and World War III at worst.