IRAN CALLED ON TO JOIN NEW FORMAT ON SOUTH CAUCASUS. TEHRAN ADOPTS WAIT-AND-SEE POSITION
by E. Valiyev

Zerkalo
Sept 10 2008
Azerbaijan

Five-way cooperation

The galvanization of Turkey’s and Russia’s policy in the South
Caucasus has heralded the beginning of a new stage in the struggle
for high stakes in the "great game" for geopolitical influence in the
region. A new negotiating format with the participation of Russia,
Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia is gradually becoming highlighted
within the framework of the Platform of Stability and Security
in the Caucasus proposed by Ankara. However, the format of this
platform, despite the lack of prospects in this regard, might expand
in the near future for a number of reasons: it could be extended to
five-way cooperation by including Iran. Thus, in the opinion of Armen
Rustamyan, representative of the supreme body of the Armenian ARFD
[Armenian Revolutionary Federation – Dashnaktsutyun] and chairman of
the permanent parliamentary assembly for foreign relations, Teheran’s
involvement in the settlement of the conflicts in the South Caucasus
could partially mitigate tensions in relations between Russia and
Iran which appeared as a result of Moscow’s inconsistent position
vis-a-vis the Iranian nuclear programme.

Given the intensifying confrontation with the countries of the West,
Russia cannot afford losing an ally as important as Iran.

[Passage omitted on Armenia’s strong interest in involving Iran]

Currently, there is a number of disagreements between Armenia and
Russia which prevent Yerevan from fully "trusting" the Kremlin in the
issue of regional security. The Russian leadership keeps a distance
from and shows virtually no interest in the processes unfolding on
the territory of Armenia which could lead to the loss of influence in
this region in the long run. In turn, the Armenian leadership, unsure
if it could pin hopes on Russia’s support should the events unfold in
such a manner, is compelled to conduct a two-way policy, manoeuvring
and trying to maintain friendly relations with the representatives of
Russia and Turkey respectively. Russia’s indistinct position in the
South Caucasus and the likelihood that it does not have a strategy
of bilateral relations with Armenia create a considerable risk of a
political crisis taking shape in the future.

According to experts, however, Iran is not an influential enough player
in the Caucasus and the peace process in the region is unlikely to
"blow up" without its participation. "Tehran’s foreign policy is based
on the Caucasus being the zone of the Russian Federation’s interests,
this is why it does not lay claims on any critical influence here. Its
activeness in the region was and will be minimal," Racab Safarov,
director of the Centre of Modern Iranian Studies, told RBK daily.

Of course, Iran’s inclusion in the five-way format of the Platform of
Stability and Security in the Caucasus could partially tone down the
tensions in relations between Moscow and Tehran which appeared after
the UN Security Council passed three anti-Iranian resolution on this
country’s nuclear programme with Russia’s approval. Now Russia has
a chance of rectifying everything by starting from a demonstration
of its interest in settling problems in the Caucasus that are vital
for it with Iran’s participation.

Russian-Iranian relations

It is worth reminding that the contours of the Russian policy vis-a-vis
Iran started to become clearly highlighted at the most recent session
of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization [SCO]. President Ahmadinezhad
failed to convince Moscow and its partners to provide guarantees
of security to Iran or to receive Russia’s support in switching the
trade in oil from dollars to euros. Russia once again called on Iran
to show flexibility and engage in reserved negotiations on the issue
of its nuclear programme. Nevertheless, Moscow also expressed support
to Iran’s actions directed at the development of the nuclear energy
for civilian use.

On the other hand, Safarov believes that further pressure on the part
of NATO and the West will inevitably push Russia towards Iran. In
the expert’s opinion, a military-political alliance of Russia and
Iran is one of the most effective ways of delivering a blow to the
interests of the West and making it adjust its aggressive policy
vis-a-vis Moscow and Tehran.

The Russian-Iranian alliance will become a powerful player in
the conditions of rapid changes of the balance of powers in
the international arena which were prompted by the war in South
Ossetia. The expansion of military-technical cooperation between
the two countries could lead to the stationing of Russian military
bases on Iranian territory. In Safarov’s opinion, East Azarbayjan
[province] and Qeshm Island [in Hormuzgan Province] in the Persian Gulf
are the most promising centres of the Russian Federation’s military
presence here. "A base in East Azarbayjan would allow Russia to take
control over the situation in the Republic of Azerbaijan, Georgia and
Turkey while its presence in the Persian Gulf would give Moscow an
unprecedented opportunity to control the actions of the United States
and NATO in the zone of the Persian Gulf, Iraq and other Arab states,"
the expert said.

The struggle for control over energy carriers of the South Caucasus and
Central Asia is becoming fiercer. Since the energy route from Central
Asia to Europe, due to a number of reasons, can only go through the
South Caucasus, those who control the Caucasian energy corridor can
count on the successful completion of [the project of] the Central
Asian gas transportation to the West in the future. Therefore, military
and political domination in the South Caucasus will play a decisive
role in the determination of the conflicting sides’ energy policy.

>From this viewpoint and given that Iran remains a zone of potential
risk in the medium term, the participation of this country in
any security system carries a risk first and foremost for the
countries-participants in this system.

Dividends from conflict

On the other hand, the Iranian leadership has not yet shown
any interest in participating in the platform and has assumed a
wait-and-see position. Iran has already received certain dividends
from the conflict in the South Caucasus. First, it is very likely
that the positions of the SCO and Iran will be further harmonized,
which will allow Tehran establish special, possibly military relations
with this organization.

Second, the prospects of crafting a military-strategic alliance
directly with Russia are already in place for Iran. Third, Iran now
has greater chances of exporting Iranian energy carriers to Europe
and Tehran is already taking steps to develop alternative routes for
their delivery.

And finally, the military-political situation in the South Caucasus
without any platform will adjust Russian-Iranian relations in terms of
the elaboration of a common position vis-a-vis the region. Every time
the political situation in the region changes, it delivers a blow on
the existing route of oil transportation from Azerbaijan to Europe,
which will help Iran become established as an alternative supplier
of energy resources.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress