"FAILURE OF GEORGIAN BLITZKRIEG COOLED TEMPERS IN AZERBAIJAN"
by Alexander Terentiev

WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
September 10, 2008 Wednesday
Russia

AZERBAIJANI POLITICAL SCIENTIST NAIR ALIYEV ON THE EFFECT OF THE
DEVELOPMENTS IN SOUTH OSSETIA ON THE REGIONAL SITUATION; An interview
with Azerbaijani political scientist Nair Aliyev.

Question: What was Baku’s reaction to the Russian-Georgian conflict?

Nair Aliyev: Azerbaijani reaction to the events in Georgia was
determined by the domestic political situation. Azerbaijan will elect
its president on October 15. Success of the Georgian blitzkrieg in
South Ossetia would have strengthened the positions of the party of
war in Azerbaijan, and left the national leadership without any other
option save for commencement of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh. Many
in the Azerbaijani establishment were saying on the first day of the
conflict that Mikhail Saakashvili did us a grave disservice. Georgia
was eventually defeated, its economy was badly damaged, and this turn
of events became a trump card on the hands of enemies of the military
solution to the problem of Karabakh. Saakashvili’s fiasco cooled some
tempers in Azerbaijan and strengthened the positions of whoever stands
for the use of economic leverage in the matter of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijani GDP tripled over the last seven years. Armenian
economy cannot match this pace – not to mention economy of
Nagorno-Karabakh. Hence the widespread opinion in Baku that Azerbaijan
will just "buy" Nagorno-Karabakh one day, offering Armenia some
economic privileges in return.

Question: Were there any fears that Armenia might follow in Russia’s
wake and recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh?

Nair Aliyev: Well, very many view the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh
as a mirror image of the Russian-Georgian conflict. Russia granted
citizenship to the residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Armenia
did so with the population of Nagorno-Karabakh. Had Baku turned
aggressive, OSCE mechanisms might have kicked in, ones stipulating
aide to whatever OSCE member was under attack. In other words, Russia
as an ally of Armenia could find it necessary to intervene on its
behalf. It was because of Azerbaijan’s position that Armenia never
recognized Nagorno-Karabakh, not even when Moscow recognized South
Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Question: And how did the Azerbaijani population take the news of
their recognition by Russia?

Nair Aliyev: This recognition played havoc with Russia’s own image
in the eyes of the Azerbaijanu population. It took the hostilities
themselves in stride, but recognition of the self-proclaimed republics
created a campaign of criticism. On the other hand, pro-Russians
in Azerbaijan never miss a chance to point out that Azerbaijan is
friends with Turkey, the only country that recognized North Cyprus.