NATO ALLIES TURKEY AND US MAY ENGAGE IN ROW OVER BLACK SEA
by Lale Sariibrahimoglu
Today’s Zaman
Sept 11 2008
Turkey
The ongoing conflict in the Caucasian nation of Georgia has accelerated
a recent historical rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia, though
caution is still called for in the development of these ties.
Turkey officially recognized Armenia following the demise of the Soviet
Union in the early 1990s, but did not initiate diplomatic relations. In
order for ties between Turkey and Armenia to be normalized in the
years ahead, Armenia will need to recognize its borders with Turkey and
abandon its official position of seeking territory from its neighbour.
"If Armenia takes such an important step, Turkey may apologize to
Armenians for the events of World War I, which resulted in the deaths
not only of Armenians but also of Turks," a Turkish diplomat said in
reference to an interview in the Taraf daily on Sept. 9 with former
Turkish Ambassador Volkan Vural.
Turkish President Abdullah Gul visited Yerevan on Sept. 6 to watch
a soccer match between the two countries’ national teams with
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, which resulted in a Turkish 2-0
victory. Though the Armenian team was defeated, this "soccer diplomacy"
has opened a channel for dialogue between the two countries.
Due to the historical enmity between the two nations, we cannot expect
bold steps to be taken by either capital immediately, but Turkey
may open its border with Armenia to enable open trade, enforcing the
"diplomacy follows trade" rule.
Though the Georgian conflict coincided with the recent soccer match,
the invitation extended by Sargsyan to his Turkish counterpart came
a long time ago. But the conflict illustrated the need for countries
in and around the volatile Caucasus to reconcile in the name of peace
and prosperity for the future.
It is also important that Armenia and Azerbaijan take steps toward
solving their long-standing dispute over Nagornyy Karabakh, an
Azerbaijani enclave populated mostly by Armenians. Azerbaijan, Turkey’s
close ally, has played a role in hijacking Ankara’s rapprochement
with Yerevan.
Ankara supports wider autonomy being given to the Armenians in
Nagornyy Karabakh and an agreement among the parties to open the Lacin
corridor, which will provide Turkey with direct access to Azerbaijan
via Azerbaijan’s Naxcivan Republic bordering Turkey.
While the Georgian conflict helped open dialogue between Turkey and
Armenia, it has also reopened some contentious issues, such as the
1936 Montreux Convention regulating the passage of ships to the Black
Sea via the Turkish Straits.
Russia, which intervened militarily in Georgia’s conflict with South
Ossetia in early August, is now making a big fuss over the NATO and
US presence in the Black Sea, though Ankara has repeatedly emphasized
that the military ships of Washington and other non-littoral states
do not violate the Montreux Convention.
In an interview with the NTV news station yesterday, Turkish Foreign
Minister Ali Babacan reaffirmed that NATO or US ships are sailing
in the Black Sea within the boundaries of the convention and that
none of the Montreux signatories have sought any revision of the
decades-old convention.
Babacan’s statement comes at a time when the US is reportedly preparing
to ask Turkey to reopen talks on the Black Sea to allow US ships to
sail freely without the limitations of the Montreux Convention.
The US-led war in Afghanistan in 2001, followed by the US invasion
of Iraq in 2003, have diverted Washington’s attention to Asia and
the Middle East from the Black Sea over the past several years.
According to US sources, the conflict in Georgia has changed the
dynamics in the Black Sea and since the situations in both Afghanistan
and Iraq have stabilized in the last four to five years – though
wars in both nations are still ongoing – it is time for Washington
to restart talks with Ankara over the US role in the Black Sea.
It is not clear at this stage whether possible renewed US requests will
take a form that will necessitate any revision of Montreux. But the US
has repeatedly claimed that US ships can sail without any limitations
in the Black Sea without any revision to the Montreux Convention.
Turkey has been trying to keep the US from establishing a presence in
the Black Sea that will violate the Montreux Convention out of a fear
that heavy US involvement may carry the danger of attempts by one or
more signatory states to press for a revision of the convention at
the expense of Ankara’s control over the strategic Turkish Straits.
The Georgian conflict has reopened old tensions while creating new
opportunities for Ankara, such as the dialogue with Armenia. But
Turkey will have a serious headache if and when the US, its close ally,
starts being pushy in the Black Sea again.