RUSSIA’S MOVE TO RECOGNIZE SEPARATIST REPUBLICS IN BAKU’S FAVOUR

Yeni Musavat
Aug 28 2008
Azerbaijan

An Azerbaijani opposition newspaper has said that the recent move
by the Kremlin to recognize the independence of the separatist
Georgian republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is in favour of
Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia as Russia
may be sidelined from the settlement of the conflict in future. "As
for other impacts on the Karabakh issue, Russia’s unilateral step is
actually in favour of Azerbaijan. First, it has clearly demonstrated
that the West, the UN and the OSCE have a different approach to the
ethnic territorial conflicts in the Caucasus as compared to the Kosovo
issue. It has stamped the idea that Russia is the main guarantor
for separatism in the post-Soviet area, has torn up the civil mask
of this neo-imperialist state and has shown a dangerous appetite of
this country to occupy the territories of other countries. In all,
it has made the West wake up.

The mentioned and unmentioned counter-measures are likely to
follow. Among such measures may be refusal from Russian "peacemakers"
in similar conflicts, including in Karabakh," opposition Yeni Musavat
newspaper said. The following is the text of Zahid Safaroglu’s report
in Yeni Musavat newspaper on 28 August 2008 headlined "Russia has been
left alone" and subheaded "The latest moves of the Kremlin may work for
Azerbaijan strategically". Subheadings have been inserted editorially.

Russia has failed to behave in the way the West did on the Kosovo
issue. No serious country or international organization has provided
support to the Kremlin, which unilaterally recognized the independence
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia several days ago. Even its satellites
Armenia, Belarus and Serbia did not dare to make the same step to
place themselves against the entire world. They either kept silent
or like Belgrade viewed Russia’s decision as unacceptable.

Denouncement

The United Nations Organization, the Council of Europe, the
European Union, NATO and self-respecting reputable countries have
sharply denounced Russia’s move and blamed it for rude negligence
of international norms and principles as was expected. Even some
threatened Moscow with sanctions.

Let us agree that these are serious consequences. To be specific,
this is a lesson for the Kremlin. But it was the other way round in
the Kosovo example: tens of countries and international organizations
recognized Kosovo’s independence and established political and
diplomatic relations with that region in one day. The difference is so
big and monumental. This difference has clearly proved that Russia’s
reputation in the world is worse that it seems and it has been left
without any serious allies. This demonstrated that there is no need
respecting or trusting this gangster country.

Sanctions

A second important consequence is that the process has newly started
and is moving towards the political and economic isolation of our
northern neighbour. The world’s super powers, which determine the
global policy the USA, the United Kingdom, Germany and France are
braced to apply sanctions against Russia. There is a big likelihood
that our northern neighbour will be evicted from the OSCE and the
Council of Europe and will be deprived of the right to host the
Olympic Games in Sochi in 2012.

But these are small sanctions. There will be more, of course. We think
that the most serious sanction will be to refuse oil and gas from
Russia, which is a pride for the Russians, as much as possible and
create domestic problems for Russia, a country of raw material. German
Chancellor Angela Merkel made such an announcement two days ago
[26 August].

Traps

Other big traps are waiting for "the Russian bear". For example, Moscow
explains its decision [to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia] with the fact that an act of genocide was committed in
South Ossetia like the one in Kosovo. But the international community
knows that it is not true. It was the other way round because Russians
committed outrages and looting against the Georgian population like
the aggressive Armenians once did in Karabakh, Xocali and Malibayli
[both are villages in Nagorno-Karabakh] by means of ethnic cleansing.

And it is clear that the decision made by the Hague Tribunal will not
be in favour of Moscow if these issues are taken to the international
court (is not the Hague Tribunal owned by the West?). It should be
noted that Tbilisi is preparing such an appeal. By the way, Azerbaijan
should also start the same process against the Armenians without any
delay because facts of ethnic cleansing and genocide play an extremely
important role in the issue of self-determination.

As for other impacts on the Karabakh issue, Russia’s unilateral
step is actually in favour of Azerbaijan. First of all because it
has clearly demonstrated that the West, the UN and the OSCE have a
different approach to the ethnic territorial conflicts in the Caucasus
as compared to the Kosovo issue.

It has stamped the idea that Russia is the main guarantor for
separatism in the post-Soviet area, has torn up the civil mask of
this neo-imperialist state and has shown a dangerous appetite of this
country to occupy the territories of other countries. In all, it has
made the West wake up. The mentioned and unmentioned counter-measures
are likely to follow. Among such measures may be refusal from Russian
"peace makers" in similar conflicts, including in Karabakh.

Russia respects Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity

Another factor that works for us is that we are confident that Moscow,
who has been forced to repent for recognizing the independence
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and has actually been left alone,
will not risk repeating a similar step for a long time; it will not
have the willingness to take the same "fatal" route in the Karabakh,
Dniester and Crimea issues; it will try to establish more careful
relations with Baku, Kiev and Chisinau. We are not mentioning the
fact that Russia does not officially have a military contingent in
Karabakh and the Kremlin has not blamed and is not blaming Azerbaijan
for any act of genocide. In other words, the same excuses can not be
used for us. Yesterday [27 August] Russian ambassador [to Azerbaijan]
Vasiliy Istratov said that Russia respects Azerbaijan’s territorial
integrity and there has been no change in this position. This statement
may also be viewed as a soft sign that the Kremlin is being isolated.

"Needless independence"

The mentioned issues are extremely important details and geopolitical
truths. In any case, new details are better than rotten clarity no
matter how painful they are. This is because the new situation requires
new and specific decisions, which are going to be big. Why? [Georgian
President Mikheil] Saakashvili showed one of the reasons in his appeal
to the people: "Moscow with its move has attempted to forcibly change
the map of the world again for the first time after the period of
Lenin and Stalin." Naturally, the free world will not let it happen.

At the end I would like to repeat the conclusion we gave in our
previous issue: who needs the independence, which is not recognized
by the strong and rich West? Unfortunately Abkhaz and Ossetian
peoples have discredited themselves in the eyes of the free world by
being towed by the Russian policy. There is a natural question: what
kind of independence is it if the leaders of the separatist regimes
supported by the Kremlin can not pay visits to Western countries,
establish economic and commercial relations and set up embassies
there, as well as can not have the say in the OSCE, the UN and the
Council of Europe? It seems to be the reason why even Armenia did not
recognize them. So, Azerbaijan must continue its pro-Western policy
more confidently and must not derail.