KARABAKHIS’ RENEWED INDEPENDENCE HOPES
By Karine Ohanian

Institute for War and Peace Reporting
Sept 11 2008
UK

Local politicians say goal of international recognition should be
pursued more strongly in wake of Georgian war.

The conflict in Georgia and Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia as independent states have fundamentally shaken up the
unresolved Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorny Karabakh.

Two of the three mediators in the OSCE body charged with resolving
the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, the so-called Minsk Group – consisting
of the United States, Russia and France – have clashed over Georgia,
with Washington deeply opposed to Moscow backing the independence of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

"The mediators in the Karabakh peace process need some mediation
themselves," commented Armen Sargsian, a deputy in the parliament in
Nagorny Karabakh.

"When you consider the fact that the two opposing poles are recognizing
a right to self-determination – the West in Kosovo and Russia in
Abkhazia and South Ossetia – their joint activity on Nagorny Karabakh
will be interesting now."

Armenian-majority Nagorny Karabakh declared independence from
Azerbaijan in 1991 and has been de facto separate from Azerbaijan
since war ended in 1994. But no one, not even Armenia, has recognised
the territory as an independent state.

The Nagorny Karabakh Republic has for years been part of an informal
"Commonwealth of Independent States-2", maintaining links with the
three other post-Soviet unrecognised territories of Abkhazia, South
Ossetia and Transdniestria. They sent observers to each other’s
elections and conducted high-level meetings.

About three years ago, Nagorny Karabakh began to distance itself a
little from the others, saying that there were differences between
the conflicts.

However, this did not prevent the Karabakhi leadership from
congratulating the Abkhaz and South Ossetians on their recognition
by Moscow. Karabakh’s president Bako Sahakian told his counterparts
Sergei Bagapsh and Eduard Kokoity, "The people of Karabakh have
received this long-awaited news with sincere joy." He expressed the
hope that "international recognition of independence will give a new
impulse to the development and prosperity of our brotherly countries".

Nagorny Karabakh’s foreign ministry also issued a statement welcoming
the developments and expressing the hope that "all powers interested
in the peace of the region will draw conclusions from events that have
occurred in the South Caucasus and will take real steps to resolve the
problems that exist only by peaceful means and within the framework
of regional stability".

Politicians were more forthright, saying Karabakhis should now pursue
the goal of international recognition more strongly. Parliamentarian
Artur Tovmasian said that Nagorny Karabakh had just as good a case
for independence as other breakaway territories.

"We are proposing that recognising the independence of South Ossetia,
Abkhazia and – why not? – Kosovo be put on the agenda of the parliament
of the Nagorny Karabakh Republic," he said.

Sargsian, a member of the nationalist Dashnaktsutiun party, agreed that
Nagorny Karabakh should recognise the independence of "all unrecognised
state entities", saying that this would be a step towards reconciling
the interests of Washington and Moscow.

Politician and humanitarian activist Karen Ohanjanian also argued
for recognition of unrecognised territories, regardless of their
international allegiances, "so that all people on earth can live in
one mutually agreed world order".

An important issue that arose in a public meeting in Stepanakert
to discuss events in Georgia was whether Armenia should not now
recognise the independence of Nagorny Karabakh, and whether Yerevan
could recognise the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia without
hurting its relations with Georgia.

The Georgian crisis had already caused a fuel shortage in Karabakh. "I
was supposed to go to work in Yerevan and it was hard for me to find
fuel at double the price," said Aren Baghdasarian, a driver. "There
was also a problem in Yerevan. People said that a bridge in Georgia
had been blown up and petrol was not being imported."

Baghdasarian said that many of his friends were predicting there
might also be shortages of flour and gas.

In Karabakh courtyards and offices, the Georgian conflict has dominated
conversations over the last month and also reawakened memories of
their own war of the early Nineties.

Ruzanna Khachatrian, a shop assistant, said that she cried when she
saw broadcasts from South Ossetia on television. "I remembered how
we lived with rats in the cellars when they were bombing us with
the same kinds of Grad [rocket-launcher] artillery and planes and
how every day innocent old people, women and children were dying,"
she said. "I watched television and didn’t know how to help these
people and stop this bloodshed. It was terrible!"

Svetlana Danielian, an economist, said, "If Georgia had been
successful, the Azerbaijanis could have gone down the same
route. Although I understand that our army is stronger, all the same
no one, I think, wants to live through yet another war.

"I’m angry that no one either here or in Azerbaijan takes into account
the opinion of ordinary people. I’m angry that thousands of lives can
be cut short because of the ambitions of two or three powers. But
if war does start, we will still have to resist because we have no
other place in this world except Karabakh."

Former presidential candidate Masis Mailian, now an independent
expert, said that he hoped the Georgian crisis would "cool hotheads"
in Azerbaijan and elsewhere who thought they could retake breakaway
territories by force. He said it had also revealed the weakness of
international conflict-prevention efforts in the Caucasus.

"Events in South Ossetia have shown up the low effectiveness
of international mechanisms to stabilise the situation in the
Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone," said Mailian. "The UN Security
Council has been unable to take any proper decisions."

Political analyst David Babayan said that he hoped recognition of
Abkhazia and South Ossetia would set a precedent for Nagorny Karabakh
but argued that this was not the most important point.

"Recognition for Karabakh is only a matter of time, but fortunately
people in Nagorny Karabakh are already ridding themselves of the
so-called ‘non-recognition complex’ and they do not link their future
exclusively to the recognition of our independence. The reverse is
true – they think of recognition as something that follows on from
achieving a certain level of statehood."

Karine Ohanian is a correspondent with Demo newspaper in Nagorny
Karabakh.