THE CAUCASUS PLATFORM OF TURKEY MAY CAUSE NEW CONFLICTS

PanARMENIAN.Net
11.09.2008 GMT+04:00

The Caucasus platform has a substantial defect – it has no place
for Iran.

The initiative of Turkey to form a Caucasus platform may be assessed as
an attempt to reanimate the Ottoman Empire at least within the Caucasus
boundaries and in the presence of strategic relations with Russia,
as well as to approach the status of a regional power-holder. What
will happen next is well known to Armenia from her history, and you
needn’t be a prophet to foresee that the Republic of Armenia will
drown in the Turkic sea.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ However, this plan has lots of defects: two
countries, which according to Prime Minister of Turkey Recep Tayyip
Erdogan should form a union, are in rather problematic relations
with their neighbours. Armenia and Georgia are the two countries
mentioned. Georgia set the region, as well as the whole world on the
brink of war, definitely knowing that it would end up "in a draw". In
spite of Saakashvili’s calls for peace and friendship, presently no
one regards the Georgian President as a sober person and a reliable
partner. In fact, with his Â"five-day warÂ" Saakashvili tripped up
Azerbaijan and Turkey, which used to rely on the profit from the
Baku-Tbilisi-Jeihan oil-pipeline, as well as on Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum
gas line. Not to mention that in case Kars-Gyumri railway is
reconstructed, it becomes useless to build the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars line,
construction of this line being useless from the economic point of
view, not to mention the underlying political motives. Even if the
railway line is built, it may stand idle for the most part, since
it passes through risky areas of Turkey, where the militants of the
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) act.

As for Armenia, the situation is much more serious here: absence of
relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. And if lately there has been
laid grounds for a dialogue with Ankara, which, by the way, will not
necessarily result in the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border,
the situation is much more difficult with Baku. Armenian-Azerbaijani
relations will hardly be normalized within the next 10-15 years, though
officials from the USA and Russia are pressing for it. At least the
Azerbaijani press is already circulating news on Turkey being the
only substitute for the OSCE Minsk Group on the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict regulation.

The Azerbaijani Mass Media also considers that the mediatory mission of
Ankara will have a better effect than the seventeen years’ activity
of the Minsk Group. "Abdullah Gul’s initiative on regulating the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is fully supported by both Russia and the
USA. Turn of events of the past few days shows that Turkey is able
to substitute the whole Minsk Group, which has been unsuccessfully
engaged in the process of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation
for 17 years," Bakiliar.AZ informs.

Moreover, the Turkish President openly declares that Armenia is ready
to withdraw its troops from the safety area of Nagorno-Karabakh. The
presence of Armenian troops in the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh
is past Gul and Aliyev’s comprehension. In fact, the safety area
is controlled by the NKR Army and the whole world, including the
co-chairs, knows about it. However, the opposite side believes that
it is more suitable to distort the reality, just like they keep
reminding about the 20% of the "captured" Azerbaijani territory,
which, in reality, is 13% and is the land of Nagorno-Karabakh. Anyway,
it is the problem of Ilham Aliyev, and, perhaps, that of Gul’s.

The Caucasus platform has another substantial defect too – it has no
place for Iran. In principle, Iran can have no place in this platform,
since the Ottoman and the Persian Empires were constantly at war
with each other and Iran’s joining the union, in case it is formed,
is simply impossible. The pro-Turkey position of the USA is another
reason why Iran cannot join the platform.

Yet, in short perspective, i.e. before regulation of Russia-West
opposition, the Caucasus platform may become a reality. However,
it will be incapable of taking decisive steps, such as regulation of
conflicts in the Caucasus, and prevention of new ones.

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