Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Sept 13 2008

Caucasian conflict improves Russia-Turkey relations

by ALEXANDER KRYLOV*

MOSCOW — Russia’s recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia has provoked an international crisis. It has also
changed its relations with the European Union and the United States
and destroyed the unipolar world order that emerged after the collapse
of the Soviet Union.

On the other hand, we can say the situation has created major problems
for the key international players, or even pushed them into
deadlock. The West cannot allow itself to push the crisis too far,
because its socio-economic situation is far from perfect and it is
heavily dependent on Russia for energy resources. The West could
possibly use sanctions to pressure Russia, in particular ban the
export of machinery, foods, electronic and other goods to Russia, but
Russia could easily buy these goods from other countries.

Furthermore, Europe would find it very difficult to replace Russian
energy imports. Some Western European countries buy between 40 percent
and 60 percent of their energy resources from Russia. Therefore,
Europe has no alternative to Russia as an energy supplier.

These considerations are keeping the conflict within reasonable
bounds. After a long period of reviewing their relations, the sides
will regard each other differently. The West will have more respect
for Russia’s interests and opinions.

I don’t think this will reignite other conflicts over unrecognized
states and breakaway territories. Take Cyprus, where the Cypriot
government and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) have
resumed negotiations and seem to be moving towards a compromise
settlement.

The example of Cyprus shows that recognition of independence does not
solve all problems. Turkey recognized the KKTC but has not prevented
it from negotiating a compromise with the Cypriot community. The
problem will be solved only when the Cypriot and Turkish sides hammer
out a solution, and the recognition of the KKTC by Turkey will not be
an insurmountable obstacle.

The same can be said about the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia
and Russia’s recognition of their independence.

Breakaway republics in other regions have not become more active,
either, although Azerbaijan initially tried to add fuel to the fire in
Nagorno-Karabakh, a territory disputed by Azerbaijan and Armenia.

On Aug. 8, when Georgia attacked South Ossetia, the Azerbaijani
Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that Azerbaijan had the
right to follow Georgia’s example and to use force to solve the
Nagorno-Karabakh problem. But it later did nothing to aggravate the
situation there, and as far as I know Turkish diplomacy had a big role
to play in that decision.

Could the current situation in the Caucasus influence relations
between Russia and Turkey? Well, it could improve them, as evidenced
by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent visit to Turkey.

The situation in the Caucasus and the surrounding region, including in
Iraq and Iran, worries above all the countries that border on the
region. The parties situated further away, such as the US and the EU,
have little incentive to consider their moves carefully. In fact,
their moves often run contrary to the interests of Turkey, Iran and
Russia.

Take the situation in Iraq, where American actions aggravated Turkey’s
problems with Kurdish separatists.

The trend is also evident in the Caucasus, where a misguided US policy
provoked the latest eruption of hostilities and created big problems
for Russia.

This means that the countries bordering the Caucasus (Russia, Iran and
Turkey) should coordinate their policies to normalize the
situation. Their coordinated or separate actions would be more
positive and fruitful than the actions of more distant countries, such
as the US and the EU.

The delicate aspect of this situation is that Turkey is a NATO
member. But has Russia criticized Turkey, a NATO member, for the fact
that NATO warships have entered the Black Sea?

Not at all, because Turkey honors all the provisions of the Montreux
Convention regarding the regime of the Turkish Straits, and so did not
let American warships pass until the deadline stipulated in the
convention.

Turkey acted as a responsible state that honors its international
commitments and behaves reasonably and constructively.

* Political analyst Alexander Krylov is a staff member of the
Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian
Academy of Sciences.

13 September 2008, Saturday