Turkish Press
Sept 13 2008

Sowing The Seeds

Published: 9/13/2008
BY SOLI OZEL

SABAH- The crisis in the Caucasus has shifted almost all actors’
strategic calculations and also led to unexpected lessons. For
example, Russia, which won the war, is now facing unprecedented
pressure. Since the start of the conflict the value of Russia’s stock
exchange plummeted $290 billion and it also lost capital totaling $21
billion. Now we’re no longer talking about the Soviet Union, which
opted out of capitalism, and so Russian capitalists and elite have to
deal with these realities of life. Official statements saying that
relations with NATO would continue should be evaluated with this in
mind.

Following the crisis, the US started to take diplomatic measures using
its limited power and possibilities in the region. Its reaction was
moderate. The US found it necessary to send money in order to protect
Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili’s power and restore the
country, because US foreign policy can’t risk a big conflict with
Russia. So a policy of reconciliation emerging in this context should
come as no surprise. In this respect, Turkey’s moves show a search for
diplomacy in line with the new balances and realities in the region.

If President Abdullah Gul’s recent visit to Armenia yields results, so
frustrating opponents of the move, and diplomatic relations are
established, Ankara will be able to play a founding role in new
regional equations. According to a survey done by Metropoll, a large
majority of the Turkish public approved of the visit and wants
Turkish-Armenian relations to improve. So if the government continues
this initiative, it won’t incur a political cost, but will win many
points both at home and abroad.

If this initiative is supported by Russia, as Sabah daily’s Yavuz
Baydar claims, we can say that all the actors in the region are
looking for a new balance. The emergence of a structure from this
search, which is the aim of the Caucasian cooperation platform
proposed by Turkey, will require complex diplomatic moves, political
determination, and good will. After Georgia, Azerbaijan is the country
which has suffered the most from this conflict. As Paul Goble of the
Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy wrote, 10 assumptions which shaped
Baku’s foreign policy in the post-Cold War era have collapsed. Among
these is the assumption that Turkey would support Azerbaijan against
Russia.

As Goble wrote, of course Turkey wouldn’t withhold its support in
countering threats to Azerbaijan. But Azerbaijan must have realized
that unsolved problems could one day explode just like a land
mine. Accordingly, solving the Karabakh issue carries great
importance. During his current visit to Azerbaijan, Gul should explain
the Armenia initiative to reassure the Azeris. So the three countries’
foreign ministers’ plan to meet during the UN General Assembly in New
York is right in this respect, but Turkey’s efforts alone aren’t
enough to solve this issue. Obviously, the US, which placed great
importance on the Armenia visit, will support efforts to find a
solution. If Russia does the same, this will ensure that Turkey’s
efforts bear fruit.