FOR NOW…
By Erdal Safak

Turkish Press
Sept 15 2008

SABAH- Energy and Natural Resources Minister Hilmi Guler’s answer
to a question at a press conference in Baku last week was noted by
Western capitals and companies involved in energy, but the Turkish
public missed it. The question was this: Is there talk about routing
the Nabucco gas pipeline through Armenia? Guler said there was no
such talk, for now. But normally he would have answered like this:
‘Where did you ever get such an idea? The route of the Nabucco gas
pipeline was laid down years ago, with the approval of all the parties
involved. Everyone knows the line will come to Turkey via Azerbaijan
and Georgia and then go to Western Europe through Bulgaria.’

The difference in his answer signals that the softening atmosphere
between Turkey and Armenia and even between Azerbaijan and Armenia
in the wake of the Georgian-Russian conflict has radically shifted
balances in the Caucasus. Indeed, Georgia is no longer a reliable
route for the energy corridor, as any glance at a map of the Caucasus
would tell you. Not only the section of Nabucco in Georgia, but
also the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Supsa oil pipelines and the
Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum natural gas pipeline are all within the range
of Russian tanks and field guns. Neither the European Union nor
multinational investors consider it reasonable to add another entry
to this list of three risky pipelines.

For the Georgia alternative to stay on the table, not only the Georgian
issue, but also all the stubborn conflicts in the Caucasus would have
to be resolved. But just like Alexander ‘resolved’ the Gordian knot,
Russia has resolved some of these conflicts which concern Georgia,
by using swords and guns! In other words, South Ossetia and Abkhazia
won’t return to Georgia but will remain so high risk that no insurance
company would guarantee a single cent there. On the other hand, a
great opportunity has emerged for solving the Upper Karabakh issue,
which is the third longstanding conflict, through Turkey’s mediation.