REASONS BEHIND CHENEY’S VISITS
By Beril Dedeoglu

Turkish Press
Sept 14 2008

STAR- Certain foreign visits are very high-profile, like President
Abdullah Gul’s visit to Armenia or his French counterpart Nicholas
Sarkozy’s visit to Moscow, while others keep to the sidelines
or shadows. US Vice President Dick Cheney’s recent trip to nearby
countries fits in the latter category. Cheney visited Azerbaijan not
even a month after the South Ossetia conflict, even as Russia hasn’t
implemented the cease-fire. Considering Cheney’s itinerary, which
continued with Georgia and Ukraine, it’s clear that these visits were
designed to disturb Russia. The US sent its vice president to places
Russia considers vital in order to show that the US also sees them
as vital. The US thus showed the entire world who it considers allies.

Actually, nobody knows if the Azeris and Ukrainians really welcomed
the visits, because being a close US ally in the Caucasus or
Ukraine – that is, near Russia – carries a price. Russia can punish
governments seeking a strategic relationship with the US, as it did to
Georgia. Countries that the US shows a close interest in are likely
to become Russian targets. Cheney’s visits might actually endanger
the soft Westernization policies of Azerbaijan and Ukraine, which
stem mostly from their desire to get closer to the European Union.

Even in explaining the reason for his visits, Cheney showed the
nature of his expectations by stressing energy issues, and he more or
less said that the US will do whatever is needed to keep Russia from
being an energy monopoly. As his last stop Cheney met with Italian
Prime Minister Silvia Berlusconi, as the issue of energy dependence
on Russia worries the EU. Meanwhile, I guess by coincidence US
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also visited Libya in a bid to
normalize relations. Even if Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi signaled
that he didn’t trust the US, there was an impression that energy
issues might encourage the two countries to get closer. So two top
US officials pursued energy issues to Turkey’s north and south, and
thus showed the EU what Washington is pursuing in the Mediterranean
and Black Sea regions. Meanwhile, Cheney stressed the importance of
Turkey, located between these two regions and their energy routes,
in terms of energy transportation lines, its strategic importance,
and the usefulness of its possible EU membership.

But Cheney talking about Turkey’s importance might not be such good
news. Actually everybody is saying that Turkey is important. In
addition, when our conservative government thinks about it, there are
many reasons to doubt that Turkish-US ties will develop in line with
Turkey’s interests. So the US is expected to toe Turkey’s line on the
Montreux Treaty, the future of northern Iraq, NATO enlargement, and
how duties are divided in international peacekeeping forces. As part
of this, Turkey might have to take measures to head off pressure in
such areas as Cyprus, the so-called Armenian genocide issue, and the
Kurdish issue as soon as possible, at least before Cheney comes here."