RUSSIA’S "PRIVILEGED" SPHERE OF INFLUENCE MEETS RESISTANCE
By Judith Latham
Voice of America
s/2008-09-15-voa28.cfm
Sept 15 2008
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev recently laid claim to what he calls
a "privileged" sphere of influence in the world. And he rejected the
idea of a "unipolar" world, where one superpower – namely, the United
States – dominates world affairs.
A Russian Perspective
Russian journalist Masha Lipman, editor of Pro et Contra, published
by the Carnegie Moscow Center, says from a Russian perspective the
recent conflict in the Caucasus began with Georgia’s invasion of
South Ossetia. Speaking with host Judith Latham of VOA News Now’s
International Press Club, Lipman says it provided a perfect excuse
for Russia’s retaliation. From a Western perspective, however,
this retaliatory mission was seen as disproportionate, especially
with respect to Moscow’s unilateral recognition of the two breakaway
enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and its refusal to recognize
Georgia’s territorial integrity. Russian soldiers have begun
dismantling some checkpoints in western Georgia near the Black Sea
port of Poti and outside the region of Abkhazia [9/10/09]. But Russia
plans to keep about 7,600 troops inside South Ossetia and Abkhazia
for what Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says will be "a long time."
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has defended Russia’s recent
war with Georgia
Masha Lipman says the Russian response put into action what former
President, and now Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin has been saying for
several years – Russia will not allow Georgia or Ukraine to become
a member of NATO. Lipman says the West dismissed those concerns,
expecting Russia to somehow get over it. But Russia is much stronger
now and far less dependent on Western financial institutions,
enabling it to act in an "independent fashion" without regard for
Western opinion. Furthermore, Lipman says, what happened in Georgia
demonstrates the limits of U.S. power. She notes that, when Washington
was unable to control its ally – Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili
– there was nothing it could do to save him from the consequences.
According to Masha Lipman, Ukraine is also vulnerable. She notes
that not only is most of the population of the Crimea ethnic Russian,
but Russian speaking as well. And she points to Ukrainian President
Viktor Yushchenko’s decree last month that puts limits on the movement
of Russia’s Black Sea fleet from its base in Savastopol – a move
widely seen as a response to Russia’s use of its naval forces there
in its recent military operations in Georgia. In fact, the Russian
foreign ministry accused Kyiv [9/11/08] of providing Georgia with
heavy weaponry during last month’s conflict.
A Ukrainian Perspective
Ukrainian journalist Yevhen Hlibovytsky in Kyiv says people there are
skeptical of Moscow’s explanation that its primary concern lies with
its opposition to Ukraine’s proposed membership in NATO. According
to Hlibovytsky, the real reason is that Russia is trying to regain
the influence it once had over the former Soviet republics. So,
he says, if NATO were not on the agenda, there would be something
else. Hlibovytsky draws a parallel between Russia’s humiliation
during the 1990s, following the collapse of the former Soviet Union,
and Germany’s humiliation in the 1920s, following World War I. And he
suggests that Nazi Germany’s annexation of the Sudetenland [present-day
Bohemia, which is part of the Czech Republic] resembles what has just
happened in South Ossetia.
During his recent visit to Ukraine, U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney
pledged support for Kyiv to join the NATO military alliance
According to Hlibovytsky, the real issue is not about NATO but about
"passport wars." He says there are claims that Russia is issuing
Russian passports and granting Russian citizenship to Ukrainians in
the Crimea and to people in Trans-Dniestria [part of the Republic of
Moldova], just as they were doing in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But
Russian journalist Masha Lipman notes that unlike Georgia, there is
little popular support for NATO membership in Ukraine, although she
notes it has the strong support of President Yushchenko.
A Georgian Perspective
In contrast, according to David Nikuradze of independent radio and
television station Rustavi 2, the people of Georgia are "united in
opposing Russian dominance" in their region. Nikuradze says, "nobody
wants to see another Soviet Union today." He says it is up to the
Georgian people to decide whether they "want to be friends" with the
United States, the European Union, or NATO. Nikuradze says the main
principle remains that Moscow "should accept" Georgia’s territorial
integrity and its sovereignty. And he adds Georgia wants to have the
"same relations with Russia" as many other European countries have.
An Azerbaijani Perspective
Georgia’s neighbor Azerbaijan has a different view of geo-politics in
the Caucasus, according to independent journalist Shahin Abbasov in
Baku. He says President Ilham Aliyev has not taken any public position
– either for or against Russia – and the government prefers to maintain
what it calls a "balanced" position between the West and Russia.
Earlier this month U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney was in Baku,
trying to persuade Azerbaijan to back Washington’s position on a
proposed Trans-Caucasian oil pipeline, running from Turkmenistan
through Azerbaijan and Georgia to Turkey – bypassing Russia. But
Abbasov says the Azerbaijani president was non-committal. On the other
hand, he says public opinion in Azerbaijan is squarely on the side
of Georgia. He says that’s because Azerbaijan has its own problems
in the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, where there is an
ethnic Armenian majority. What is most critical, Abbasov stresses,
is that Azerbaijan is extremely vulnerable to Russian pressure.
A U.S. Perspective
Meanwhile, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried says that
Russia must be prevented from drawing a new line in Europe. And Senate
Armed Services Committee chairman Carl Levin has said that Washington
needs to strike the right balance between signaling to Russia that
its claim of a "sphere of influence" that overrides the sovereignty
of its neighbors is unacceptable, while continuing to work with Moscow
in those areas where both nations’ strategic interests are aligned.