NABUCCO GAS PIPELINE THROUGH ARMENIA?

Haber 27
Sept 16 2008
Turkey

Turkish daily Sabah’s columnist Erdal Safak comments on energy
routes and gas pipelines in the Caucasus and Turkey. He hints that
the Nabucco pipeline may pass through Armenia.

Energy and Natural Resources Minister Hilmi Guler’s answer to a
question at a press conference in Baku last week was noted by Western
capitals and companies involved in energy, but the Turkish public
missed it.

The question was this: Is there talk about routing the Nabucco gas
pipeline through Armenia?

Guler said there was no such talk, for now.

But normally he would have answered like this: ‘Where did you ever
get such an idea? The route of the Nabucco gas pipeline was laid down
years ago, with the approval of all the parties involved. Everyone
knows the line will come to Turkey via Azerbaijan and Georgia and
then go to Western Europe through Bulgaria.’

The difference in his answer signals that the softening atmosphere
between Turkey and Armenia and even between Azerbaijan and Armenia
in the wake of the Georgian-Russian conflict has radically shifted
balances in the Caucasus.

Indeed, Georgia is no longer a reliable route for the energy corridor,
as any glance at a map of the Caucasus would tell you.

Not only the section of Nabucco in Georgia, but also the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Supsa oil pipelines and the
Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum natural gas pipeline are all within the range
of Russian tanks and field guns.

Neither the European Union nor multinational investors consider it
reasonable to add another entry to this list of three risky pipelines.

For the Georgia alternative to stay on the table, not only the Georgian
issue, but also all the stubborn conflicts in the Caucasus would have
to be resolved.

But just like Alexander ‘resolved’ the Gordian knot, Russia has
resolved some of these conflicts which concern Georgia, by using
swords and guns!

In other words, South Ossetia and Abkhazia won’t return to Georgia
but will remain so high risk that no insurance company would guarantee
a single cent there.

On the other hand, a great opportunity has emerged for solving the
Upper Karabakh issue, which is the third longstanding conflict,
through Turkey’s mediation.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress