AZERBAIJAN: ALIYEV KEEPS BAKU’S OPTIONS OPEN DURING MEETING WITH MEDVEDEV
Shahin Abbasov

EurasiaNet
Sept 16 2008
NY

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Moscow on September
16 was notable mostly for what he did not say. Russia has
pressed Azerbaijan to sell a large volume of natural gas to the
Kremlin-controlled conglomerate Gazprom. But Aliyev and his Russian
hosts did not announce a gas purchase deal following their talks.

Aliyev met with President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir
Putin during his daylong stay in Moscow. Medvedev indicated that the
discussions were merely informational. Azerbaijan has been a Western
ally so far in the Caspian Basin energy game. [For background see
the Eurasia Insight archive]. The Kremlin is trying hard to woo Baku
away from the West. "We had to check positions taking into account
problems which appeared in the Caucasus after Georgian aggression. I
informed the Azerbaijani president about steps that Russia undertook
to provide security in South Caucasus," Medvedev said. [For background
see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Aliyev, like other regional leaders, is trying to avoid being backed
into a situation where he would have to declare his preference for
one side or the other. In Moscow, he was careful not to say anything
that might offend Moscow. "There is necessity to consolidate efforts
in order to provide peace and predictability," he said. "We need to
diminish tension. All problems have to be solved peacefully."

Aliyev avoided commenting generally on Georgian-Russian tension,
and specifically refrained from any comments concerning Russia’s
decision to recognize the separatist territories of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Baku’s sensitivities are heightened by concern over its own separatist
enclave, Nagorno-Karabakh. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive]. Some Azerbaijani officials are evidently concerned that if
Baku expressed support for Georgia, then Azerbaijan’s own efforts to
regain control of Karabakh would suffer.

During the Moscow visit, Russian officials reassured Aliyev that he
need not be concerned about Karabakh – yet. Medvedev stressed that
the Kremlin did not see a connection between Karabakh and Georgia’s
separatist entities. "Russia’s position has not changed," Medvedev
said, referring to the Karabakh peace process. "We also support
continuation of direct talks between Azerbaijani and Armenian
presidents."

Neither Aliyev nor Medvedev touched on the possible Russian large-scale
purchase of Azerbaijani gas. Experts in Baku believe that Aliyev’s
administration has yet to reach a decision on the matter, and is
playing for time.

On September 12, Elshad Nasirov, the vice president of Azerbaijan’s
State Oil Company (SOCAR), said that "Azerbaijan tries to fully
depoliticize the issue of export destinations for "large gas"
which is expected after 2013." According to Nasirov, Azerbaijan’s
choice will mostly depend on commercial factors. "All destinations
[of gas export] are equally possible and we will mostly consider
the net-profit for SOCAR and its partners," he said. Gazprom’s is
reportedly willing to pay Baku $300 per 1.000 cubic meters. Nasirov
added that Western Europe, Russia and Iran all remain possible export
destinations. He added that exports to Asia via Turkmenistan could
become a fourth option.

Aliyev and Medvedev also had no comment on a Turkish initiative to
establish a "Caucasus platform for security and cooperation." That
concept was raised by Turkish President Abdullah Gul during his
recent visits to Yerevan and Baku. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive].

Reflecting on the visit, some Baku experts said they did not expect
Baku to make up its mind on the gas-purchase question until after
presidential elections in the fall. "Aliyev is hardly ready to answer
these questions," said Rauf Mirgadirov, a political columnist for
the Zerkalo newspaper, referring to the issues of gas purchases and
Azerbaijan’s security cooperation with the West.

Indeed, to try to maintain room for maneuver, Baku continues to explore
ties with NATO. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov went
to Brussels on September 16 to take part in discussions over NATO
representatives. After that, he was scheduled to travel to London to
meet with the British Foreign Minister David Miliband.

Editor’s Note: Shahin Abbasov is a freelance correspondent based
in Baku.